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Pattern July Fries

I really hope the models don't back down from the upcoming pattern. We could put up some beefy totals through 8/1

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SD said:
I really hope the models don't back down from the upcoming pattern. We could put up some beefy totals through 8/1

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Yeah, it’s looking great with the trough digging in, going a little negative tilt, Bermuda ridge strengthening and blocking up the pattern, you and Rain Cold are looking great!! Cautiously optimistic for y’all, but it almost seems to good to be true, like a great Euro snow run, but 4 days out!:)
 
Tarheel1 said:
Yeah, it’s looking great with the trough digging in, going a little negative tilt, Bermuda ridge strengthening and blocking up the pattern, you and Rain Cold are looking great!! Cautiously optimistic for y’all, but it almost seems to good to be true, like a great Euro snow run, but 4 days out!:)
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No kidding you won't get a much better setup in mid summer. Just from a setup perspective you could argue some localized areas will see upwards of 10 inches by 8/1 and a general state wide 2-3

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SD said:
No kidding you won't get a much better setup in mid summer. Just from a setup perspective you could argue some localized areas will see upwards of 10 inches by 8/1 and a general state wide 2-3

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Y’all are golden, I think West of 26, we get 1” or less. But I’m rooting for y’all! It will be fun to watch! Like most of our winter storms, the MA and NE, look to get the wind and really fun stuff!
 
Tarheel1 said:
Y’all are golden, I think West of 26, we get 1” or less. But I’m rooting for y’all! It will be fun to watch! Like most of our winter storms, the MA and NE, look to get the wind and really fun stuff!
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I was hopeful over the weekend that the sfc low might get going over the northern gulf before heading up the coast. Nothing says mid summer like a nice nor'easter.

I think you do better than an inch. The bermuda ridge probably starts flexing back a bit late in the month and may shift the heavy rain your way

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Tarheel1 said:
Yeah, it’s looking great with the trough digging in, going a little negative tilt, Bermuda ridge strengthening and blocking up the pattern, you and Rain Cold are looking great!! Cautiously optimistic for y’all, but it almost seems to good to be true, like a great Euro snow run, but 4 days out!:)
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That’s what I call black snake chasin weather right there.
 
SD said:
I really hope the models don't back down from the upcoming pattern. We could put up some beefy totals through 8/1

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I hope mby gets the rubberband theory. 1st part has been accomplished. Ain't mowed going on 3 weeks. Field corn is twisted, waist to chest high with tassels and the always wet crabgrass hasnt even made an appearance. Been a brutally dry growing season in my neck of the woods.
 
Weird how different things are over here on the other side o' the mountains... I'm going nuts trying to keep up with working and doing the lawn... I can't go 10 days without it needing a mow.. fastest growing grass I've seen in a long time in SE Tennessee. Definitely no hint of drought anymore...
 
The 0z NAM is insane for anytime of year. Cape is pushing 6000 on some of the soundings and while I don't think tornadoes will be the main show, it flagging the PDS threat shows how incredibly unstable it is. That high DCAPE number is concerning as well as is the 55-65kts at 500mb. Thus is near Tuscaloosa at 0z Saturday.

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For the month so far, we're running hot, but the main driver is the daily lows, not highs. Only one low was under 70 this month. These stretches of 70+ lows are insane. Goes way beyond UHI forcing.
CHA:
July '18 Average 91.6 73.1---- Normal 90.1 69.4
 
NCSNOW said:
I hope mby gets the rubberband theory. 1st part has been accomplished. Ain't mowed going on 3 weeks. Field corn is twisted, waist to chest high with tassels and the always wet crabgrass hasnt even made an appearance. Been a brutally dry growing season in my neck of the woods.
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Yep my parents in western lee county are in the same boat. .6 since 6/1 at their house and everything is fried

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Not too bad at all. Looking forward to all the precipitation models are showing. :)
 
5F56ADBE-155D-4E53-9ED8-2B1A848D63A2.png This should help! Giddy up!
 
3091429B-1562-44BB-8DF8-0107705E9134.png JB says summers over in the East!!!!
 
SD said:
not sure I would get that agressive
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Yeah, typically when that clown says something is/isn't over, he is wrong. I fully expect this below normal to happen to some degree, but I also think we will warm up in August at least if not early Spetember back into the 90s for a week minimum. I doubt we will have enough tropical systems to put a damper on the heat.
 
ForsythSnow said:
Yeah, typically when that clown says something is/isn't over, he is wrong. I fully expect this below normal to happen to some degree, but I also think we will warm up in August at least if not early Spetember back into the 90s for a week minimum. I doubt we will have enough tropical systems to put a damper on the heat.
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Yeah easily 2 solid months left.


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108 at the airport earlier... even for Dallas in July this is record heat... broke the record from 1925 and it appears more records will be threatened through the weekend :confused:
 
Brent said:
108 at the airport earlier... even for Dallas in July this is record heat... broke the record from 1925 and it appears more records will be threatened through the weekend :confused:
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How did the winter of 1925 do in Dallas!? That’s most important info we need now that you’ve suffered through the heat!:weenie:
 
SD said:
Nice flow right out of the tropics
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We must be getting some good SE fetch out my way , with rain totals over me , almost as high as along the coast! With today’s 7 day precip totals
 
5BD06D8C-1925-4885-AD16-F7F2806497B2.png Early start to the big wet!!! Moving NW! Absolutely pouring now!
 
Tomorrow looking like a good chance of widespread severe weather, for a lot of people on the board!! Some starting later this afternoon and evening ! Timing of overnight should save MBY, but we shall see
 
Local Mets really hyping tomorrow’s severe WX. Usually a recipe for a milk dud. Let’s see what happens
 
Got another half inch last night and this morning. 80 out there now, In July, still can't believe it, lol. Just glad I don't have Texas weather. Hell, I don't even have typical Ga weather these days. Hope it lasts the summer out...much better suffering thru 80 rather than what I usually get...and if I can stay in the 80's another two months I'll be seeing the promised land of winter looming big :) Still haven't seen a 90, but then there were some hot days when the system was down so I can't say I haven't...but the hottest I know about was 89.9, so I was close, lol.
 
GaWx said:
Today's edition of MBY wx, the big "S" edition, and a followup to the above post:

- I ended up with somewhere in the unreal range of 2.5-3" on Monday (7/16) from 2 thunderstorms as well as some general rains, easily the heaviest of the month to date.
- Yesterday (7/17), I got another PM thunderstorm giving me ~1/4-1/2".
- Today (7/18): I got ~1.5" from a series of 2 thunderstorms over the last 2 hours or so, which makes it 2nd to 7/16 for the wettest day of July so far. On 7/7, I had received 1-1.5" for the 3rd wettest day of this month.
- So, the last 3 days have given me ~4.25-5" of rain, which is just under the normal for the entire month of ~5.5-6"! The month to date (7/1-18) is likely near the 6-7.5" range or at least double the normal of just over 3"!
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BOOM! Today took the cake with a whopping 3.5" of rain in just one hour from a very heavy thunderstorm 4:15-5:15 PM that formed along a stationary front!! This was likely the heaviest rainfall I've witnessed here in one hour in at least several years. Numerous streets were impassible, ditches/canals were bankful or overflowing. Many cars got stuck. What made this worse was that it fell near high tide and the ground was already saturated from ~5-6" of rain just the prior 4 days, which included near 3/4" yesterday. Total for the last 5 days near an incredible 8.5-9"!! Month to date is near 10.5-12" vs normal of only 3.5"...so I've received ~triple the normal.
 
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GaWx said:
BOOM! Today took the cake with a whopping 3.5" of rain in just one hour from a very heavy thunderstorm 4:15-5:15 PM that formed along a stationary front!! This was likely the heaviest rainfall I've witnessed here in one hour in at least several years. Numerous streets were impassible, ditches/canals were bankful or overflowing. Many cars got stuck. What made this worse was that it fell near high tide and the ground was already saturated from ~5-6" of rain just the prior 4 days, which included near 3/4" yesterday. Total for the last 5 days near an incredible 8.5-9"!! Month to date is near 10.5-12" vs normal of only 3.5"...so I've received ~triple the normal.
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You must be living right. I’ve had just one 1” storm since the middle or so of June.


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Still 0.00 here

However, just come in from the front porch after rocking for 2 hours lol. It's amazing outside, nice constant breeze, very late September feel in the air. And on the bright side , I still dont have to worry about mowing again this Saturday like alot of folks on here. Should finally score some good rains here next several days.
 
I landed in San Francisco at 5pm and went from July to November lol :eek:

It got progressively cooler til I got to the waterfront and was downright chilly on the Golden Gate, So odd, I left Dallas at 2pm it was 107.
 
Frisco is weird.. I spent a year in the Bay area when I was a kid.. no earthquakes, but summer pool time was less than two weeks. And yeah, snowcapped peaks were a thing in the winter... above 3500 ft. Fogs, strangest weather phenom of my life, still haunting. John Carpenter had it right... those Pacific fogs had a life of their own.
 
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Seattle is even wilder.. they have Frisco esque summers, with Kentucky level snows some years.. Actually, climate similar to Scotland in the winter.
 
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