Pattern Januworry

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EURO and GFS on board with a distinct severe weather period. Still long ways out. Both very consistent with a surface low in favorable positions for alabama'ins.ecmwf_T2m_us_57.pngecmwf_z500a_us_57.pngecmwf_mslp_uv850_us_56.pngecmwf_mslp_pcpn_us_55.png
 
We aint hitting no 44 today. Sitting at 37 looking at 2 week old sleet piles in the parking lot that refuse to melt.
 
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GaWx said:
I haven’t made any specific predictions for February yet but instead am only saying I don’t see any sign of a drastic change to mild domination in the SE and have plenty of hope it averages BN in the first half of February based on models, analogs (like 1985, 1972, 1934, 1899, and 1895), and the MJO.

Ok, what the heck. I’m predicting that ATL and RDU will both be at least 3 BN 2/1-14. I’m not predicting wintry precip as that’s a crapshoot, but being BN helps more than hurts the chances.
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Bumping this post of mine from January 17th during a period when the general discussion was centering on a potential overall pattern change to mild in early February as models were hinting at a warmup near February 1st as the PNA was then predicted to fall late this month. I was doubting that change to a mild pattern citing ENSO analogs (1985, 1972, 1934, 1899, and 1895) the MJO, and extended models (Euro weeklies/CFS) and was asked for a prediction:

“I’m predicting that ATL and RDU will both be at least 3 BN 2/1-14.”

Looking at today’s models, I feel pretty good about this despite an expected mild February 1-3. Let’s see what happens.

I’ll also copy this into the February thread.
 
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1. Miami and Ft. Myers with forecasts of 38/32 tonight would have their coldest since January of 2010!

2. SAV and Gainseville, FL, with fcasts of low 20s would have their coldest since Jan of 2018. @pcbjr

3. Middle 40s with a nice wind here now. Similar at Hogtown. Going to try to go walking in this shortly. Tonight will actually be a bit nippy for even me. So, I'll try to get it it in before dark if I can.

4. Going to water the Sego Palms for extra protection but they should be ok regardless from what I've read. They have moss around them. By the way, I just read that they're not really palms.
Will drip my outside faucets.
 
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GaWx said:
1. Miami and Ft. Myers with forecasts of 38/32 tonight would have their coldest since January of 2010!

2. SAV and Gainseville, FL, with fcasts of low 20s would have their coldest since Jan of 2018. @pcbjr

3. Middle 40s with a nice wind here now. Similar at Hogtown. Going to try to go walking in this shortly. Tonight will actually be a bit nippy for even me. So, I'll try to get it it in before dark if I can.

4. Going to water the Sego Palms for extra protection but they should be ok regardless from what I've read. They have moss around them. By the way, I just read that they're not really palms.
Will drip my outside faucets.
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Larry,
The wind is dying it seems, the RH has dropped considerably, never cracked 40º until late AM ... my weather guess is that the radiator goes bonkers tonight ... could go lower than the "official" call of 23º ...
Phil

Edit:

From local NWS:

Tonight will be downright COLD and widespread lows in the low 20s,
with localized readings into the upper teens, is expected tonight.

With the 10-12 hours of subfreezing temperatures
tonight, this arctic cold outbreak will undoubtedly result in
impacts; folks please protect your outdoor animals, sensitive
plants, ensure exposed pipes are properly insulated and check on
others that may not have sufficient shelter.
 
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GaWx said:
1. Miami and Ft. Myers with forecasts of 38/32 tonight would have their coldest since January of 2010!

2. SAV and Gainseville, FL, with fcasts of low 20s would have their coldest since Jan of 2018. @pcbjr

3. Middle 40s with a nice wind here now. Similar at Hogtown. Going to try to go walking in this shortly. Tonight will actually be a bit nippy for even me. So, I'll try to get it it in before dark if I can.

4. Going to water the Sego Palms for extra protection but they should be ok regardless from what I've read. They have moss around them. By the way, I just read that they're not really palms.
Will drip my outside faucets.
Click to expand...
Great stats as always. I'm a little surprised our forecast lows aren't lower considering the near 0 dewpoints and dying winds. It looks like our winds quickly shift from the southwest after midnight, maybe that is the culprit.
 
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BullCityWx said:
I’m thinking single digits for people like @NCSNOW who got more snow
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Agreed. If anyone is able to fully decouple early with or without snow cover 7, 8, 9 seems realistically doable with dews generally -5-0.

This is probably the most impressive arctic air we have had in place since 2018. It would have been interesting to see what we could have done with a deeper snow pack or having the winds down now instead of near or after midnight. Have to think widespread single digits to low negative single digits
 
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