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Pattern Januworry

Is there any chance that low in the gulf could push north? That run was close for a lot on here.
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
Cold air source to the northwest and not the northeast. Not a big fan tbhView attachment 110052
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Yeah, we won’t have the classic damming high in this setup. The key in terms of temperatures is that there is already a fairly deep trough in the eastern U.S. as the storm wave / trough moves in. If there was an extra day of delay, we most likely would be too warm. But if the base of the wave (500mb vort max) will get under us (track to our south) and be fairly deep / strong like this GFS run, we’ll have enough cold air aloft with temperatures at the surface around freezing after wet-bulbing / cooling with steady precipitation. Those components of the setup are akin to the Jan 1987 storm that hit the upstate - i.e. it had a Great Lakes low and no damming high to the north, but was just cold enough
 
CaryWx said:
dynamic cooling needed?
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We’ve been spoiled with our 25 degree snowstorms this month. It’s different staring a big one like this down the barrel knowing if everything goes right you’re temperatures will still be borderline marginal at best. But as Grit said, it’s been done before.
 
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