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Pattern Januworry

Per Jack Sillin, here's the 00z NBM 2",6",12" snowfall probabilities for next weekend
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This is good at this point.

RAH
Attention then shifts to a potent shortwave trough which will dive
SE from the Northern Plains into the Deep South on Friday,
potentially inducing surface cyclogenesis off the East Coast Friday
night. Both the GFS and ECMWF have been consistently showing this,
but as to be expected this far out, the placement of the low and how
soon cyclogenesis takes place are very uncertain at this time. The
GFS had been bringing the low and its associated precipitation
shield farther west, but the 00z run is more like the ECMWF and
keeps it farther east and offshore. Most GFS and ECMWF ensembles do
the same. Temperatures would potentially be cold enough to support
some frozen precipitation if it does occur, so this will need to be
watched in the coming days. For now just have a slight chance of
rain or snow in eastern parts of the area. Temperatures will turn
colder once more on Saturday with strong NW flow as the low deepens
offshore.
 
FallsLake said:
This is good at this point.

RAH
Attention then shifts to a potent shortwave trough which will dive
SE from the Northern Plains into the Deep South on Friday,
potentially inducing surface cyclogenesis off the East Coast Friday
night. Both the GFS and ECMWF have been consistently showing this,
but as to be expected this far out, the placement of the low and how
soon cyclogenesis takes place are very uncertain at this time. The
GFS had been bringing the low and its associated precipitation
shield farther west, but the 00z run is more like the ECMWF and
keeps it farther east and offshore. Most GFS and ECMWF ensembles do
the same. Temperatures would potentially be cold enough to support
some frozen precipitation if it does occur, so this will need to be
watched in the coming days. For now just have a slight chance of
rain or snow in eastern parts of the area. Temperatures will turn
colder once more on Saturday with strong NW flow as the low deepens
offshore.
Click to expand...
I think the NWS discussion from Raleigh sums up my thoughts about this coming weekend's system pretty well. It is there on the models and something to watch depending on the track it takes but nothing to get too excited about as of now. I know the members here will be wide awake and among the first to know if we are in store for another round with Old Man Winter.
 
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