To me this is a perfectly reasonable look from the ensembles. We’re in the ballpark. If it slides further east in subsequent runs then yeahhhhhh time to lower your expectationsin a good spot
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Pattern Januworry
- Thread starter SD
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GEFS took a step towards the euro/EPS, which means more ots, nothing to freak out over now but this setup could be prone to that
HurricaneSolomon
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Once again WRAL has jumped onboard with the “potential” for something to arise this coming weekend...
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Weathernerds.org's snowfall algorithm says that Roxboro jackpots.
Valid for Buxton
@Myfrotho704_ and others, Tomer Burg has GEFS 500mb Vorticity + Geopotential Height ensembles on his site.
Gonna be funny when we go from that to a off the EC late bloomer tonight at 00z, GFS digs the S/W wayyyy SW of the ensemble mean
Oh wow these maps off tomers site is beautiful 
Fun fact about the parent trough/shortwave- it already exists. We are not utilizing combining table scraps/wave propagation in the yukon to form our shortwave.
Watch the 972 low south of the Aleutians stream poleward, round the ridge then start diving. that's our guy. I bet we see a little more run to run continuity with this. I've always thought that the big dogs bark very far in advance and this is no exception.
Watch the 972 low south of the Aleutians stream poleward, round the ridge then start diving. that's our guy. I bet we see a little more run to run continuity with this. I've always thought that the big dogs bark very far in advance and this is no exception.
wow
Member
zero CAD.. all dynamically driven by ULL.. temps marginal
And you know this. Specifics will change but you have to think we make a run at something significant again next weekend
Temps looked just like that on ensembles for this past storm we just went through .. they can see significant storm signals far out.. so I can see how this event was seen in terms of major temp changes and such (those usually come with some sort of big event on the beginning or end of them) so the fact that we continue to see this signal in our medium range right now is another great sign that something else is coming for someone in the SE
Flotown
Member
Anybody with more knowledge can tell me what he is alluding to???wide right ,cutter??