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Pattern Januworry

J.C. said:
Its just incredible to me where KATL's temps are still after 18 days, KPDK , which is around 15 miles north is over 2 degrees colder. I'm 15 miles north of KPDK and I'm 51.5/34.2. Just a crazy gradient.

KATL KPDK
View attachment 108300 View attachment 108301
Click to expand...
I was wrong. It appears Atlanta is going to be 10 degrees over the 20 year average. Ouch.
 
I'm a little surprised that there seems to be so little interest in the Monday night-Tuesday system. While pending today's EMCF run, we do have some players on the field that could get it done. As usual, temps are iffy. But all of the globals have a gulf or deep south low with stale arctic air in place and a reinforcing shot diving down.

CMC without the Great Lakes low:
gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_24.png
The GFS with a pesky GLL that brings everything too far north verbatim:
gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_25.png

And finally, the ICON with something in between:
icon_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_48.png
 
Wild Weather Monger said:
I'm a little surprised that there seems to be so little interest in the Monday night-Tuesday system. While pending today's EMCF run, we do have some players on the field that could get it done. As usual, temps are iffy. But all of the globals have a gulf or deep south low with stale arctic air in place and a reinforcing shot diving down.

CMC without the Great Lakes low:
gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_24.png
The GFS with a pesky GLL that brings everything too far north verbatim:
gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_25.png

And finally, the ICON with something in between:
icon_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_48.png
Click to expand...
Timing is all wrong on this one. Need that northern stream energy to get way out ahead of the southern piece. There is no way for this to trend to snow for most of us, outside of the mountains.
 
weatherfide said:
Me too. I think we are about to switch to a trough in the west in February. I also don't see any real promising setups in the next two weeks. It's looking like we are going to leave January with a few cold rains and near average temps. That will not erase the huge warm departure's earlier this month. I can see Atlanta staying 4 to 5 degrees above average for the month, easy.
Click to expand...

I can assure you Atlanta won’t end up January anywhere near 4-5 above average and instead will very likely end up slightly colder than normal to near normal. Other than today, the next week or so has BN just about every day.
 
Wild Weather Monger said:
I'm a little surprised that there seems to be so little interest in the Monday night-Tuesday system. While pending today's EMCF run, we do have some players on the field that could get it done. As usual, temps are iffy. But all of the globals have a gulf or deep south low with stale arctic air in place and a reinforcing shot diving down.

CMC without the Great Lakes low:
gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_24.png
The GFS with a pesky GLL that brings everything too far north verbatim:
gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_25.png

And finally, the ICON with something in between:
icon_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_48.png
Click to expand...
It actually has nothing to do with the lakes low. Dang that myth is as hard to kill as is the warm ground won’t let snow accumulate one.
 
Meh. The surface low is a reflection of the differences in how the upper levels are modeled in this case.
 
Wild Weather Monger said:
That is exactly what the CMC does.
Click to expand...
It doesn't get far enough ahead to allow deep cold to penetrate into the southeast ahead of the deepening shortwave in the southern stream. Euro looks like the GFS. It's a bucket load of cold rain for most. Maybe some change over on the back side in TN and NC mtns.
 
Wild Weather Monger said:
I'm a little surprised that there seems to be so little interest in the Monday night-Tuesday system. While pending today's EMCF run, we do have some players on the field that could get it done. As usual, temps are iffy. But all of the globals have a gulf or deep south low with stale arctic air in place and a reinforcing shot diving down.

CMC without the Great Lakes low:
gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_24.png
The GFS with a pesky GLL that brings everything too far north verbatim:
gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_25.png

And finally, the ICON with something in between:
icon_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_48.png
Click to expand...

The key word you mentioned is “stale” in referring to the cold for this setup. Typically,as you must know you need a relatively fresh supply of cold when the Gulf moisture is meeting it to produce snow for a large portion of the SE. Of course, the coldest SE climo areas like the NC/TN mountains or, say, northern TN/NC have an advantage and can sometimes get away with stale cold working out, but those are just SE US exceptions. Snow is already tough enough to get in the SE. Stale cold as well as poorly timed new cold rarely works out for the vast majority of the SE for a significant wintry event.

So, in this case, there’s only stale cold, which means the prior cold 850s are rapidly warming. So, that makes getting snow difficult. Next, I look for a good wedge for low level cold to produce ZR and possibly sleet. There’s no wedge on the map. Finally, I look for new cold to get involved. Well, we all know that that doesn’t normally work out for the vast majority of the SE (other than mountain areas that are helped by NW flow) for anything more than a small event like anafront showers/flurries in some cases. The timing of fresh cold and the moisture as modeled right now is not good.

Maybe this will change though as the models could end up way off. You never know as this is still 5-6 days out.
 
weatherfide said:
Euro is sending a clear message that the fun is over in 10 days. Dumps all the "reserved" fresh cold air into the southeast after next week's rain storm and reloads the trough out west. We torch going into February.

It was nice while it lasted.
Click to expand...
The only clear message from the euro is it's clueless. I can't take anything it's says serious right now.
 
Ollie Williams said:
Lol, the Euro control has a repeat of today's event, but with more phasing.
View attachment 108350
Click to expand...

That system looks to have only stale cold to work with as of now as mentioned above. The timing of fresh cold and gulf moisture is poor. Good luck with that working out for most other than maybe far northern areas of the SE and the favored areas for NW flow afterward. But as I said, there’s still time for the timing to change.
 
GaWx said:
That system looks to have only stale cold to work with as of now as mentioned above. The timing of fresh cold and gulf moisture is poor. Good luck with that working out for most other than maybe far northern areas of the SE and the favored areas for NW flow afterward. But as I said, there’s still time for the timing to change.
Click to expand...
How do our MJO and CFS forecasts look?
 
Models looked promising 48 hours ago for more opportunities. Now a rug pull. Seems to me there are equal chances given the wild fluctuations.


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