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Pattern Januworry

GaWx said:
The new Euro weeklies are significantly colder for 2/5-12 in the E US vs the prior run and are THE coldest yet for that period with solid BN! Keep in mind that even way out on 2/12, normals are only about 2 F warmer than now. Plus, 2/12 is near THE peak of snow climo for the SE.

So, if this is accurate, we still have a minimum of nearly 4 more weeks of interesting winter wx! Plus, the weeklies have been trending colder for 1/20-2/12 for the last few runs. Thus, there’s a good chance that that period will continue to trend even colder on later runs.
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That's interesting 2/12 is near the peak of snow climo for the SE considering that almost immediately after this date snow climo falls off pretty dramatically. It's been over a decade since ATL had snow past 2/12.
 
Dewpoint Dan said:
That's interesting 2/12 is near the peak of snow climo for the SE considering that almost immediately after this date snow climo falls off pretty dramatically. It's been over a decade since ATL had snow past 2/12.
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To be more specific, I should say that mid to late Feb (say 2/11-29) is the peak for SE snow climo. I look at way longer than just a decade.

ATL/SE had lots of wintry wx in mid Feb in 2010 and 2014.
 
GaWx said:
To be more specific, I should say that mid to late Feb (say 2/11-29) is the peak for SE snow climo. I look at way longer than just a decade.
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Do you think that's because the later in winter you go the better chances of having a BIG snowstorm compared to more numerous smaller snowstorms earlier in the winter ? Wouldn't you say there's more snow events on average in January but maybe more bigger snow events in mid to late February ?
 
Dewpoint Dan said:
Do you think that's because the later in winter you go the better chances of having a BIG snowstorm compared to more numerous smaller snowstorms earlier in the winter ? Wouldn't you say there's more snow events on average in January but maybe more bigger snow events in mid to late February ?
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Maybe partially
 
NWS KJAX is befuddled by the models for the end of the week ... so don't feel bad if you can't figure it out either ... you're in good company ...


Sat/Sun...The GFS and ECMWF 12Z runs are now totally out of sync
for the weekend forecast as GFS tries to develop trailing system
out of the Gulf and track across NE FL/SE GA with rainfall and
potential for freezing rain across inland SE GA, while the ECMWF
is totally dry and and cold with below normal temps and possible
light Freeze/Frost products expected. This produces some very
tough results in the gridded forecast with rainfall chances in the
30-50% range on Saturday lowering to 10-30% on Sunday with
clearing skies late in the weekend. Max temps only in the 40s/50s
both days with lows generally in the 30s. Basically very LOW
confidence in this time frame for precipitation chances until
models come into better agreement, although decent confidence that
temps will remain below normal this weekend.
 
It’s clear even after this weekends 2 waves of low pressure were tracking for winter events won’t be the last .. big arctic air still showing up to be unloaded into the country late nExt week which will then bring new life to more storms
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
It’s clear even after this weekends 2 waves of low pressure were tracking for winter events won’t be the last .. big arctic air still showing up to be unloaded into the country late nExt week which will then bring new life to more storms
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There’s signs of a pattern change heading into February . Bring it I say .
 
Lickwx said:
There’s signs of a pattern change heading into February . Bring it I say .
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Some moderation to this incredible pattern would be fully expected. Even that would be a pattern change of sorts. However, I’m still not seeing anything resembling a mild pattern on anything. Included in this idea are the Euro weeklies, which still are cold dominated through Feb 12th.
 
GaWx said:
Some moderation to this incredible pattern would be fully expected. Even that would be a pattern change of sorts. However, I’m still not seeing anything resembling a mild pattern on anything. Included in this idea are the Euro weeklies, which still are cold dominated through Feb 12th.
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Aleutian island ridging and a cold Alaska have been shown consistently on models for a while now as we approach end of the month. Not too mention the PNA drifting down. I’ll stand by what I say , this pattern is going to change as we head into February . Euro weeklies , how did they do with the last pattern change ?

I agree that just like with the last pattern change we won’t know if it’s a moderation or a full scale change .
 
GaWx said:
Some moderation to this incredible pattern would be fully expected. Even that would be a pattern change of sorts. However, I’m still not seeing anything resembling a mild pattern on anything. Included in this idea are the Euro weeklies, which still are cold dominated through Feb 12th.
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Larry,
I honestly have been thinking we see a change in very early Feb., but it's simply & solely based on a declining PNA and repeatedly asking myself "how long can glory last?" ... if we can hang on ... Lord Bless Us ... selfishly, I just wanna get out and walk ... ?‍♂️
Phil
 
Lickwx said:
Aleutian island ridging and a cold Alaska have been shown consistently on models for a while now as we approach end of the month. Not too mention the PNA drifting down. I’ll stand by what I say , this pattern is going to change as we head into February . Euro weeklies , how did they do with the last pattern change ?
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The weeklies have overall been continuing to try to catch up with the colder changes this month and have thus been too warm. They’re continuing to adjust colder and have extended those changes into mid Feb.

I agree that the pattern will “change” as we “head into February” simply because the pattern is always changing to some extent, even if to a minor degree. You’re bound to be correct because it is kind of a broad statement. Do you have a specific prediction for, say, RDU? Will it be warmer than normal in Feb overall? If so, how much?
 
GaWx said:
The weeklies have overall been continuing to try to catch up with the colder changes this month and have thus been too warm. They’re continuing to adjust colder and have extended those changes into mid Feb.

I agree that the pattern will “change” as we “head into February” simply because the pattern is always changing to some extent, even if to a minor degree. You’re bound to be correct because it is kind of a broad statement. Do you have a specific prediction for, say RDU?
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I don’t do specific predictions . Just saying the 500mb pattern is going to change once more . Predicting how warm or cold is silly . All I’m saying is what we are seeing now is going to change , good chance to something that does favor warm.
 
GaWx said:
The weeklies have overall been continuing to try to catch up with the colder changes this month and have thus been too warm. They’re continuing to adjust colder and have extended those changes into mid Feb.

I agree that the pattern will “change” as we “head into February” simply because the pattern is always changing to some extent, even if to a minor degree. You’re bound to be correct because it is kind of a broad statement. Do you have a specific prediction for, say, RDU? Will it be warmer than normal in Feb overall? If so, how much?
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I'll play what are we predicting
 
GaWx said:
The weeklies have overall been continuing to try to catch up with the colder changes this month and have thus been too warm. They’re continuing to adjust colder and have extended those changes into mid Feb.

I agree that the pattern will “change” as we “head into February” simply because the pattern is always changing to some extent, even if to a minor degree. You’re bound to be correct because it is kind of a broad statement. Do you have a specific prediction for, say, RDU? Will it be warmer than normal in Feb overall? If so, how much?
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Of course towards the end of Feb averages are much higher than now so it could be well below normal by then and not be terribly cold.
 
GaWx said:
Fair enough, but you almost couldn’t be proven wrong as 500 mb will change.
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However, since you do specific predictions are you suggesting you predict the pattern of storm chance after chance and cold wave after wave to continue into mid feb ? How below average ? Like I said I don’t do those . Guaranteed to be wrong
 
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