Pattern Januworry

[Batman]

I hate to be “different” but I believe February will be our next chance of winter weather for lower elevations of NC (Winston-Salem and Charlotte). Certainly not buying into the chances y’all are seeing in January.

I would love to hear the explanation behind this post. I have lived in GA for 30 years and can think of only a couple times throughout that span that you could see a winter pattern loaded for a few weeks with the potential for winter weather for so much of the SE as we are looking at right now.

 

[iGRXY]

I hate to be “different” but I believe February will be our next chance of winter weather for lower elevations of NC (Winston-Salem and Charlotte). Certainly not buying into the chances y’all are seeing in January.

I’ve noticed a trend over the years and that’s whatever you say about the weather, it does the exact opposite. Please keep saying this so I know we score again in January ??

 

[pcbjr]

This is precisely why you want a low tracking I-4 and then up ... from that folks from Valdosta to southern VA can get in on it; whereas with a low tracking mid-GA and up, some of y'all get some nice weather but a good bit of it is spent on folks that get it from other sources anyway ... and folks south are ...




I-4 Low ... Tony gets his sleet, Larry gets his frozen hanging from the eaves, and I get to a nice feeling ...

 

[Arcc]

My goodness. The GFS drops the hammer with cold after next weekend. That is not ten day plus away either.

 

[BufordWX]

Just a tad chilly.

 

[Arcc]

The GFS is absolutely nonstop freezing cold. Absolute mind boggling potential.

 

[Arcc]

I’ve seen this before. As long as this look remains this pattern will only reload.

 

[Arcc]

FWIW another threat around day ten on the GEFS. Looks overrunning via 500mb and surface.

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

Just counted 4 potential pieces of energy that could bring a SE winter storm if either one was tweaked just a bit … the potential pattern still looks ripe for us to be involved through he beginning of February at this point

 

[pcbjr]

I’ve seen this before. As long as this look remains this pattern will only reload.

If that's the case that unfolds, we've lost the PNA ...

 

[Chazwin]

I hate to be “different” but I believe February will be our next chance of winter weather for lower elevations of NC (Winston-Salem and Charlotte). Certainly not buying into the chances y’all are seeing in January.

Are you going to explain your reasoning and what exactly your seeing that the WPC isn’t? They have put most of the Carolinas in a 30-50% probability of significant snow or sleet later this with a portion of NC at 50-70%. Keep in mind that 3 weeks ago you said there would be no wintry weather outside the mountains until 1/25 at the earliest… that was ended on 1/3, then earlier this week you said there would be no appreciable snow outside the mountains with today’s storm.

 

[Broken024]

Are you going to explain your reasoning and what exactly your seeing that the WPC isn’t? They have put most of the Carolinas in a 30-50% probability of significant snow or sleet later this with a portion of NC at 50-70%. Keep in mind that 3 weeks ago you said there would be no wintry weather outside the mountains until 1/25 at the earliest… that was ended on 1/3, then earlier this week you said there would be no appreciable snow outside the mountains with today’s storm.

No, he won't.

 

[Chazwin]

With the way things are looking the next week to 10 days… could CLT actually have a below average January??

 

[ATLwxfan]

Just counted 4 potential pieces of energy that could bring a SE winter storm if either one was tweaked just a bit … the potential pattern still looks ripe for us to be involved through he beginning of February at this point

Could be a historically epic 2 week period folks


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[wxdaniel]

Perhaps someone with a little more knowledge than me can help. I’m going over some data to help answer a few questions. How and why did the snow over-perform in the upstate S.C. area.

I’m unsure what this method is called but one culprit of over-performance was the wet-bulb. There are other mechanisms involved and will go over that later. I’m not sure if this is a phenomenon where a city (Atlanta) caused the atmosphere to do this, or is it a coincidence?

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[griteater]

Perhaps someone with a little more knowledge than me can help. I’m going over some data to help answer a few questions. How and why did the snow over-perform in the upstate S.C. area.

I’m unsure what this method is called but one culprit of over-performance was the wet-bulb. There are other mechanisms involved and will go over that later. I’m not sure if this is a phenomenon where a city (Atlanta) caused the atmosphere to do this, or is it a coincidence?

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Two things come to mind:

1) the damming wedge was strong and cold air was sent SW down into the upstate....not just at the surface, but just above the surface as well. 1st image is from a NAM 3km run, but you can see here at 9AM Sun at 850mb how the near 0 deg C cold is trying to hang on in the upstate while +2 C is running up into central NC.

2) the warm advection shown in 2nd image at 850mb was intense and banking up into the mtns to the NW. The warm advection is drawing in warm moist air from the SE, creating rising motion for precip generation....and while it does cause warming at 850mb, that process also creates strong lifting which is a cooling mechanism in the air column.

So, I suspect it was just a unique combination of strong cold air damming and low level lift that created just enough cooling to get the job done for snow

 

[Broken024]

The 06 gfs has to be a joke. It's just storm after storm through the end.

24 hour snow total at hour 300 ?

 

[GaWx]

Welcome, folks, to inside the left side of circle in January (which started Saturday):

 

[Wild Weather Monger]

December seems like it was last year.

 

[NorthDFWwx]

All things considered, this is surprising...