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Pattern Januworry

I don’t post much here or the other board anymore but I can say I don’t remember seeing anything like this. And I’ve been on these boards a long time. Lol!
Hope you’re doing well!
Hey bud! Congrats on your dawgs. Let’s reel in these two events. Good luck tomorrow.
 
Epic cold SE HH GFS means tossing not an option! Maybe 1984-5 not so crazy an analog from the chilly Nov to mild Dec to frigid Jan along with similar ENSO. Also, the similar ENSO 1933-4 and 1971-2 both had a frigid shot mid to late month with single digits ATL and RDU. Both of those had a cold Feb with a near boardwide type of winter storm in Feb of 1934 and Feb of 1972 was very icy, esp in main CAD region:

View attachment 106219
This is a wow map for me. I've seen a few of these maps over the years, and I'm sure it's happened, but I am not sure I have ever seen that white color modeled before! Bring it!
 
We finally got the GEFS MJO forecast to update after a 10 day wait. I couldn’t have drawn a more favorable MJO projection in January for SE cold and wintry threats: inside circle circling around a lot of the time in and near phase 8…holy cow!

DECFCFB5-0F85-4559-8AEA-04DE3D54A73C.gif

We also got a CFS update, which is similarly great:

ECBD3BA2-1628-4638-BD97-EAF4F4651608.gif

Finally, here’s the JMA, which also looks pretty dang good:

ECBD3BA2-1628-4638-BD97-EAF4F4651608.gif

Here’s a diagram I made for KATL based on 40 years of January temperature anomalies: note that inside the circle was on average colder than outside for each respective phase and that inside 8 was THE coldest on average (that very cold 8 was also the case just outside the circle up to about a 1.5 amplitude):

33D4924C-3896-4EA5-9477-F53D7C782FBF.png
 
I hate to be “different” but I believe February will be our next chance of winter weather for lower elevations of NC (Winston-Salem and Charlotte). Certainly not buying into the chances y’all are seeing in January.
 
I hate to be “different” but I believe February will be our next chance of winter weather for lower elevations of NC (Winston-Salem and Charlotte). Certainly not buying into the chances y’all are seeing in January.
And as a reminder, you also said no appreciable accumulating snow outside of the mountains with this storm.
 
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