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Pattern Januworry

Wave timing and spacing are going to make the next 2 weeks sweaty. No north Atlantic block means we have to get the waves in the NE OR the PAC ridge axis to act as our suppressor particularly for the Carolinas. Time it right and you have snow from Louisiana to Hatteras time it wrong you have this weekend all over again or worse, push the trough axis east enough and you have a coastal low burying the central and eastern Carolinas. I suspect we will see many more ensemble runs with blips all over the place.
 
SD said:
Wave timing and spacing are going to make the next 2 weeks sweaty. No north Atlantic block means we have to get the waves in the NE OR the PAC ridge axis to act as our suppressor particularly for the Carolinas. Time it right and you have snow from Louisiana to Hatteras time it wrong you have this weekend all over again or worse, push the trough axis east enough and you have a coastal low burying the central and eastern Carolinas. I suspect we will see many more ensemble means with blips all over the place.
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Time it right.... so BAU right?
 
SD said:
Without a -nao yeah. It's the gift and the curse of having these expansive pac ridges. Big cold shots, impressive sfc highs but short windows to win before the next round of energy is digging and trying to close the window
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Such a fine line too. See last Feb where it drops just a little west and TX/AR get it
 
Chandler said:
From early glance, Canadian is pretty close next week, I’d assume some of this is snow
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Yeah CMC keeps the trough more positive tilt and brings in a late bloomer

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