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Pattern Januworry

Looks like we do it again next Fri/Sat but maybe this time with a true real Miller A type setup....

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_33.png
 
Next Thursday into Friday is gonna be the next one to track ; Canadian was most bullish, Va snowstorm and gets into NC on backside 0z last night

Looks like a overruning event as artic front comes down and sweeps through the area. Way to soon to dial in, but the energy is flying around everywhere from 4 corners area on globals. Gonna trend alot . All show the plunge coming.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Woah look at that signal on the EPS, it’s basically locking on to another legit threat later next week View attachment 105364View attachment 105363
Click to expand...

Love that we've got perhaps something else to track. But I'm wondering what we're going to do to keep the storm track beneath us this time. With the WAR in the this timeframe and no real 50/50 low, may be a tough task. It looks like the STJ is going with the split flow, so perhaps we can get a southern wave to slide underneath with good timing.

ecmwf-ens_z500a_namer_9.png

gfs-ens_uv250_namer_33.png
 
1642177265576.png
Still has potential, as noted will need some good timing to avoid suppression, but worth watching
 
SnowNiner said:
Love that we've got perhaps something else to track. But I'm wondering what we're going to do to keep the storm track beneath us this time. With the WAR in the this timeframe and no real 50/50 low, may be a tough task. It looks like the STJ is going with the split flow, so perhaps we can get a southern wave to slide underneath with good timing.
Click to expand...
Still think viewing this pattern as a 4 on a scale from 1 to 5 makes sense (better than average, but not great). Once this next NPac low builds and works into the Aleutians day 6 or so, that's when the larger ridge goes up out west. We get some cold then, but the flow is fast and the trough is pretty far east. The 00z CMC (I know) had a nice look at the end of its run where the western ridge rolled over (Anti-cyclonic wave break) and the trough kind of filled up the whole U.S., lowering the full height pattern. But we'd be better off with more of a full U.S. trough as opposed to it being oriented along the east coast of course. The other way to do it would be to build heights in the N Atl behind one of these cold plunges which would back the flow (doesn't even have to be a full on -NAO).

But looking ahead, the E Asia sfc high / Aleutian Low / nicely extended Pac Jet look (extended to just north of Hawaii or thereabouts) still remains, though it will go in spits and spurts. Again, since Christmas, we tend to go back and forth with the extended modeling...a few days look good to great, then a few days will look ok to good. But the overall features are still there to keep a cold pattern going. I think the first sign that the pattern breaks down will be when we see tropical convection firing in earnest in the Indian Ocean (then moving into Indonesia). Suspect that progression happens early Feb > mid Feb, but just a best guess and who knows
 
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