Pattern Januworry

[Broken024]

Fantasy for especially @pcbjr from 12Z CFS but this is only 12 days out and the intense cold is just about unanimous on all of the models. So, anyway, here’s the perfect track for N FL snow with a low moving from the GOM to S FL while interacting with an extremely cold and large/sprawling high still centered way up over the N Plains (thus not squashing the moisture below the deepest SE):

View attachment 104557
View attachment 104558

This is a very rare mainly light accumulating snow for the gulf coast to south GA/SE SC and all the way down to Ocala, FL!! I mean a once a few decade rarity!

View attachment 104563

At 500 mb, there’s a moist WSW flow:

View attachment 104564

The 850’s are just below 0C to Ocala meaning this is pure snow:

View attachment 104568

Back to reality but this is far from an impossible dream.

Gefs is putting out some deep south snow/ice then too

 

[griteater]

Arctic air running into a Marine Heatwave in the Gulf. Me likey

 

[Arcc]

Fantasy for especially @pcbjr from 12Z CFS but this is only 12 days out and the intense cold is just about unanimous on all of the models. So, anyway, here’s the perfect track for N FL snow with a low moving from the GOM to S FL while interacting with an extremely cold and large/sprawling high still centered way up over the N Plains (thus not squashing the moisture below the deepest SE):

View attachment 104557
View attachment 104558

This is a very rare mainly light accumulating snow for the gulf coast to south GA/SE SC and all the way down to Ocala, FL!! I mean a once a few decade rarity!

View attachment 104563

At 500 mb, there’s a moist WSW flow:

View attachment 104564

The 850’s are just below 0C to Ocala meaning this is pure snow:

View attachment 104568

Back to reality but this is far from an impossible dream.

Edit: @Ollie Williams, I hope you add these maps to your thread!

Looks like we are gonna redo the 2014 pattern and look just in time for the Snowjam anniversary.

 

[GaWx]

Holy cow and Thanks, Larry!

You’re welcome! This is extra interesting because it would come exactly on the 100th anniversary of what is quite possibly the worst icestorm in Savannah history, the one from 1/25-26/1922!

That a couple of days later lead to the devastating Knickerbocker historic snowstorm that buried the NE and caused the Knickerbocker theater roof in DC to collapse. It was a horrific tragedy.

 

[BufordWX]

18z GFS has round after round of cold air for the Eastern US. 2nd half of January looking very interesting indeed. Will be interesting to see how everything shakes out.

 

[GaWx]

More 12Z CFS maps for late January. To its credit, the CFS has largely been on this.

Hemispheric H5 is amazing:


Hemispheric H5 anomalies:


2 meter temperature anomalies: overdone some areas due to cold bias over snowcover but fwiw…



2 meter temperatures: RDU low 20s and ATL mid 20s. May be overdone but we have to go back to January of 2018 for that kind of cold over a 5 day period.


850 temp anomalies:

 

[Broken024]

This look just stays until then end of gefs. It's incredible.

 

[CyclonicFury]

I'm interested to see if RDU can finally get a low below 20°F. RDU has not seen a low below 20°F since January 2019, a record long period without frigid cold.

 

[Mr. Golf]

I'm going to ask a dumb question which I should know, but when u see total snow or total kuchera snow, is that accumulation if its cold enough, or is snow depth or positive snow change a better representation of actual accumulation?

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

I'm going to ask a dumb question which I should know, but when u see total snow or total kuchera snow, is that accumulation if its cold enough, or is snow depth or positive snow change a better representation of actual accumulation?

Total kuchera snowfall maps should be taken for the most part as what should fall and have the ability to accumulate to that potential depending on the ratios

 

[Chandler]

1/5 EPS members with single digit cold in the long range ? Even some negatives in there

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

GEFS individual plots indicated manyyyy snow threats in the future .. this has to be one of the best looking and clear patterns I’ve ever seen modeled

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

I mean good god

 

[BullCityWx]

Doggone

 

[BufordWX]

Hmmm.. this is the next timeframe to watch.

 

[wxdaniel]

Hmmm.. this is the next timeframe to watch.View attachment 104829

For Florida. That’s a nice high. TPV still in play.


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[Philstorm91]

For Florida. That’s a nice high. TPV still in play.


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Could be a chance for those of us along the I-10 corridor to score with a storm like GFS is showing on 0z.

 

[Chandler]

 

[Arcc]

The GFS takes the Aleutian low well sub 500dm.

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

Maybe the greatest operational run I’ve ever seen. Frozen pinwheel. Chance after chance after chance. @Rain Cold ‘s secret ingredient: tappable cold airmass.