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Pattern Januworry

Myfrotho704_ said:
I agree, certainly could shear out or just become a run of the mill clipper
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The good thing is even if we get some stretching shearing for most of NC it's still a snow event and potentially for more locations. You lose the super high 6+ inch ceiling but you decrease mid level waa and mixing potential
 
SD said:
The good thing is even if we get some stretching shearing for most of NC it's still a snow event and potentially for more locations. You lose the super high 6+ inch ceiling but you decrease mid level waa and mixing potential
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yep agree. a widespread 1"+ event would be a major win esp for the clt area down into sc.
 
SD said:
The good thing is even if we get some stretching shearing for most of NC it's still a snow event and potentially for more locations. You lose the super high 6+ inch ceiling but you decrease mid level waa and mixing potential
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That was my thought, amped events never work out for our area....we tend to rain while 50 miles west it's heavy now.
 
SD said:
I'm worried the vort for the weekend system gets sheared/elongated especially with another wave trailing but we will see. One of the next 3 is likely a solid hit but determining which one particularly between 2 and 3 isn't going to be easy
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The needle thread here or magic lotto #'s is to get the spacing just right between each. Thats our hurdle or hurdles with each. Starts with Thursdays bomb that blows up and helps with the confluence for the weekend. But its got to be in just the right spot so the weekend NS dives just right
 
SD said:
Yeah that's my concern here is this vort gets sheared/stretched versus a consolidated wave look at how the control changedView attachment 103210
View attachment 103211
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You see the Low off NE, how close back toward the east coast it is. Thats what causes the vort for the weekend to shear out bottom frame you posted. It cant amp, needs more space I beleive.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Models are starting to see a -PNA around the 23-25th or so, esp the EPS, the gefs looks better however
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I bet that change is a little bit rushed. Each -PNA and +PNA cycle has been running about 30 days each. We flipped to a +PNA just recently, so I bet we go into the first week of February before it flips. That being said, February is toast for winter weather after the first week and then March will be below normal, but that's useless to me by then.

I need to chase something in the next two weeks if I'm going to see snow this year.
 
Going to be a lot of chatter of the impending -PNA that will likely come end of Jan into Feb....but, if we can keep getting help from WPO/EPO than maybe Feb won't be a total loss.


Recall we had a -PNA for 2 events last week.
compday.rvyZlY_MH3.gif
 
KyloG said:
That was my thought, amped events never work out for our area....we tend to rain while 50 miles west it's heavy now.
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It's a delicate balance for those outside of the mountains and triad. Too strong of an upper level system puts 850/700 to our west for the first half of the system then probably along the nc/SC border and the initial snow line races W-NW like Usain bolt and we are sleet/rain/zr. Too weak and the wave is apt to end up farther north and we rain anyway. There's a nice sweet spot in the middle that can snow from the mountains to the coast (2-4 even 3-6) with even snow down into parts of SC/GA it's just getting that has been similar to picking lotto numbers
 
SD said:
It's a delicate balance for those outside of the mountains and triad. Too strong of an upper level system puts 850/700 to our west for the first half of the system then probably along the nc/SC border and the initial snow line races W-NW like Usain bolt and we are sleet/rain/zr. Too weak and the wave is apt to end up farther north and we rain anyway. There's a nice sweet spot in the middle that can snow from the mountains to the coast (2-4 even 3-6) with even snow down into parts of SC/GA it's just getting that has been similar to picking lotto numbers
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What’s surprising me, is how bold the euro/EPS has been with it, normally it’s the model that kills hopes and dreams
 
KyloG said:
Going to be a lot of chatter of the impending -PNA that will likely come end of Jan into Feb....but, if we can keep getting help from WPO/EPO than maybe Feb won't be a total loss.


Recall we had a -PNA for 2 events last week.
View attachment 103214
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we can have a board wide (hell almost country wide) hit with a -PNA if other indices help.
 
deltadog03 said:
we can have a board wide (hell almost country wide) hit with a -PNA if other indices help.
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The transition to when we -PNA should be watched there’s probably gonna be some leftover vortex on the east/SE can trying to move out when energy from the west ejects
 
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Not sure things prog better for ATL with this next system. Seems like far northeast Georgia has the best shot. Otherwise a snoozer as it stands right now.


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Myfrotho704_ said:
What’s surprising me, is how bold the euro/EPS has been with it, normally it’s the model that kills hopes and dreams
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Agree its certainly a reason for optimism. Remember how far east the models originally had the Friday clipper and look at how far SW the trough axis has inched in the last few days. Obviously not all situations are the same but have to wonder if we start seeing the gfs/gefs inch SW with that system more toward the eps/euro and maybe a little ticking NE of the eps
 
SD said:
Agree its certainly a reason for optimism. Remember how far east the models originally had the Friday clipper and look at how far SW the trough axis has inched in the last few days. Obviously not all situations are the same but have to wonder if we start seeing the gfs/gefs inch SW with that system more toward the eps/euro and maybe a little ticking NE of the eps
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Yep, that trend with the clipper has really established the cold airmass we need, wonder if we’re seeing the progressive bias perhaps ?
 
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