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Pattern Januworry

FFC's take:

At the surface, high pressure will prevail much of the time. A
strong cold front/low pressure system is progged to move through
Saturday into Sunday, bringing the next chances for significant
precipitation.

There are some differences between the ECMWF for the long term. The
ECMWF is producing some light precip with the strong shortwave energy
late Thursday into Friday while the GFS is dry. The second
difference is for the Saturday into Sunday system. The GFS is much
further north with the low pressure track, while the ECMWF looks to
be further south and wetter. Will stick with the blend for now.

NListemaa

&&
 
Really love the look of the 06z EPS, flatter and a stronger press of cold because the stronger low in the Atlantic, the control looked like ?
The snow mean was just starting so it didn’t quite get there yet, it looked about the same as last run at 144 tho 7ACDFEDC-2B3E-4FF9-92BA-F8445FA810F4.png896D430B-7E65-4261-BFC0-8BB70B3AD277.pngA84EF166-DBD4-48F0-92CC-3408E38E86A9.pngB1FDFA8B-B0D1-4298-85B5-5E7EF3C1F50D.png73BB0780-5B3F-45CD-BCE2-FE1F8661244F.png
 
deltadog03 said:
So far so good, but I would I like to the see the high pressure further south, but more importantly, built in quicker.
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Yep further south by 100 miles would make a huge difference for people in SC snd NGa. Another fact is the strength of the high, 1029 is not that strong. I'd really like to see it at 1035 or so
 
Broken024 said:
I'm just going to pretend like I didn't see this
View attachment 103190
Click to expand...
We will definitely start getting this look on the models as we head into February as the same pattern from December likely comes back for typical Nina climo but the GFS progressive bias rushes pattern changes. Just like December it rushed the pattern change by roughly 10 days, that is almost certain of the case here. But this does tell me that our window of opportunity for cold and winter weather is between now and the 2nd week of Feb before we probably head to the trashcan until at least March.
 
jackendrickwx said:
Love to see it consolidating/locking onto low track. + any SE tick will be much appreciated
Click to expand...
Yep, I’m sure this will try to amplify as we get closer and tick nw, the more this ticks SE, the better since this will probably come NW and amped last minute, this has potential to be a big dog imo
 
After looking through the models from last night this morning a few things are standing out. In the short range we are really starting to dig energy further southwest with each run which is the same thing that happened that caused the snow across NC, Tenn, Alabama, and Georgia previously. That is a very good trend you want to see, it allows for more precip to build and it pulls colder air much further south which is what we are seeing. As others have said, as the pattern looks now I think we could get a legit snow probably from the halfway point between I85 and I20 north. If we can continue to build high pressure to the north by continuing the strengthening of the 50/50 Low and pushing the TPV further south, then those south of I20 can really get into the game.
 
SD said:
Prob going to start 3 threads today depending on the 12z runs one from Thursday- Friday, one for sat- Monday, one for next Tues-thursday to break this up a bit
Click to expand...
That first sets the stage for the other 2 but it is really interesting and a good sign that the first wave is starting to dig further and further southwest which is causing these NW trends with the precip and ushering in more cold air. That happened with the 2 previous events last week and is happening here as well. I think we are going to start seeing that even more for the other 2 potentials as well which is a really good thing.
 
I hope this doesnt happen. I know enough to know when California gets rain and snow it warms up in the east.

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_64.png
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Yep, I’m sure this will try to amplify as we get closer and tick nw, the more this ticks SE, the better since this will probably come NW and amped last minute, this has potential to be a big dog imo
Click to expand...
I'm worried the vort for the weekend system gets sheared/elongated especially with another wave trailing but we will see. One of the next 3 is likely a solid hit but determining which one particularly between 2 and 3 isn't going to be easy
 
SD said:
I'm worried the vort for the weekend system gets sheared/elongated especially with another wave trailing but we will see. One of the next 3 is likely a solid hit but determining which one particularly between 2 and 3 isn't going to be easy
Click to expand...
What I'd like to see is the first one not get too sheared and then move into position to help us with the second one.
 
griteater said:
For the potential weekend system, the 06z EPS Mean bumped north from the 00z run with the wave track thru TN. The wave track and how it sharpens as it rounds the base of the trough are key here

e9mj0I8.gif
Click to expand...
Like others have said, I would like to see it farther south at this range. We know how perfect or bear perfect tracks usually evolve 7 days out. This may not fall into that bucket for a number of reasons, but it's hard not to think about it anyway.
 
Rain Cold said:
Like others have said, I would like to see it farther south at this range. We know how perfect or bear perfect tracks usually evolve 7 days out. This may not fall into that bucket for a number of reasons, but it's hard not to think about it anyway.
Click to expand...
Yeah, concern is more that it won't dig far enough SW and sharpen IMO, but long way to go.
 
griteater said:
For the potential weekend system, the 06z EPS Mean bumped north from the 00z run with the wave track thru TN. The wave track and how it sharpens as it rounds the base of the trough are key here

e9mj0I8.gif
Click to expand...
Yeah that's my concern here is this vort gets sheared/stretched versus a consolidated wave look at how the control changedecmwf-ensemble-c00-conus-vort500_z500-2312800 (1).png
ecmwf-ensemble-c00-conus-vort500_z500-2312800.png
 
SD said:
I'm worried the vort for the weekend system gets sheared/elongated especially with another wave trailing but we will see. One of the next 3 is likely a solid hit but determining which one particularly between 2 and 3 isn't going to be easy
Click to expand...
I agree, certainly could shear out or just become a run of the mill clipper
 
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