• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Pattern Januworry

It’s intriguing seeing a subtropical cyclone over the southwest pacific. If this happens, it will be the first time in history.

f2015e28d3f4aae770fbbc10e1e9e320.jpg



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
18z Euro looked colder and had a slightly stronger high in Canada, but the energy in the western US looked closer to separating, as we seen from the 12z, we need the energy to be connected, it’s only gonna be in the western US in 84-90 hours
Click to expand...
18z ensembles should have a look at it too right?
 
BullCityWx said:
I feel like it was in the model noise range. Control looked like it was gonna be a hit.
Click to expand...
Not that it necessarily has to matter in this situation, but the control has less resolution and often shows snow that doesn't pan out. I like the pattern though, and I think it's more likely to be right this time than in other cases.
 
Rain Cold said:
Not that it necessarily has to matter in this situation, but the control has less resolution and often shows snow that doesn't pan out. I like the pattern though, and I think it's more likely to be right this time than in other cases.
Click to expand...

Seriously, no offense to anyone on here but why do the Control runs keep getting pulled out? I know they are really fun to look at sometimes, but I have never seen a single snowy Control run verify. I would genuinely like to know if there is some benefit to what they show versus the other Ensemble members.
 
mrdaddyman said:
Seriously, no offense to anyone on here but why do the Control runs keep getting pulled out? I know they are really fun to look at sometimes, but I have never seen a single snowy Control run verify. I would genuinely like to know if there is some benefit to what they show versus the other Ensemble members.
Click to expand...
The control and euro basically do the same thing 95% of the time, until you get out to day 7-10+, most of the time the control snow maps you see are far out which is why they never verify, however the control inside of hour 180 typically is alike the euro, just with lower res
 
mrdaddyman said:
Seriously, no offense to anyone on here but why do the Control runs keep getting pulled out? I know they are really fun to look at sometimes, but I have never seen a single snowy Control run verify. I would genuinely like to know if there is some benefit to what they show versus the other Ensemble members.
Click to expand...
The Control essentially is the Euro at a lower resolution run through 360, with the correct initial conditions. It's best to think of it as an ensemble member. They then tweak the initial conditions 50 times and rerun. So you have a 51 member ensemble suite. That's the way i understand it.
 
Time for Germans to regain some of there nostalgia from a couple of winters ago and get on board the foreign model train like the euro family an ukmet for this weekend.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top