Pattern Januworry

[Myfrotho704_]

Some Members have some Miller B setups, but meh

 

[Chazwin]

Looks like the difference between the GEFS/EPS is that the EPS is faster with the energy so it enters a colder airmass initially and interacts with the lower heights off the coast quicker/colder stuff to the NE so the NS energy can wrap that in more, while the GEFS is slower so it ridges out ahead a little which means it’s harder for it to feel the CAA from the system in the Atlantic, and it allows a better chance for the system to move more north/cut into a apps rubber, all this probably shows why the EPS was decent last night, need quicker energy, gefs looks better this run however then the last few View attachment 102897View attachment 102898

Correct me if I’m wrong, but doesn’t the EPS typically have a bias of being slower with energy?

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Correct me if I’m wrong, but doesn’t the EPS typically have a bias of being slower with energy?

GEFS = to fast
EPS = sometimes to slow, especially near the SW US

 

[Tarheel1]

Some Members have some Miller B setups, but meh View attachment 102902View attachment 102904

Pattern is loaded! For the Northeast! DT and Bustardi, have got to be full on ?mode!

 

[Flotown]

I think we can all agree ,gonna be some fun runs coming up in the next few days...I'm still intersed in next weekend for someone...jmo

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Nah ion like this run now lol I’m tired of seeing blues out west

 

[deltadog03]

What I worry about is that trof wanting to go back into the west by the end of the month.

 

[Stormdoc]

I keep hoping to see that big ridge going up out west as shown on ensembles. Still waiting.

 

[ajr]

If I remember correctly (20+ years ago so I probably don’t, lol), I thought the Jan 2000 storm was forecasted to go OTS by the models.

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

Everything looks great to me still

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

Can’t freak out over any one model for one cycle. Still great pattern

 

[Stormdoc]

Not freaking out, just trying to also reel in expectations of multiple winter storms in the upcoming weeks like the models were showing yesterday. The PNA is positive, which is good, but is not dramatically so, so as usual we still may need to thread the needle versus having a “can’t miss” pattern.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

If I remember correctly (20+ years ago so I probably don’t, lol), I thought the Jan 2000 storm was forecasted to go OTS by the models.

We’re also living in a time where models are much better than back then

 

[Broken024]

------ quality, but GEFS still wants to dump the cold in the east. It's under 300 hours now. So we still have that.

 

[Broken024]

This looks good

 

[Jessy89]

Still good pattern just the models still have no clue


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[Myfrotho704_]

No bad 48 hr trends to me, only thing I notice is it seems as if wavelengths in this pattern are wanting to shorten as we get closer, which is typical

 

[Broken024]

Winter cancel

 

[Myfrotho704_]