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Pattern Januworry

Stormdoc said:
This look is no doubt intriguing. Low heights from the southern Pacific through the SE and into the western Atlantic. Nice positive heights over top to keep a cool air feed, with very little to push shortwaves poleward to rain on our parade. Oh, and it looks similar throughout the run.View attachment 102674
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There is an unemcumbered pathway for energy to move from the Baja all the way through NA, Just throw in a well timed northern stream wave, and Boom.
 
All of the models continue to show the general go-forward pattern of western riding and eastern troughing. Pattern looks active too. You can see by some of the close misses and a few ensemble hits posted overnight that it's an active pattern, that can support an occasional well-timed hit.

The big missing ingredient is a west-based -NAO. We're just not seeing that want to set up. We see east-based versions of it at times, with the occasional nose into Greenland. If we keep the rest of the pattern and add that, somebody will get a snowstorm. That is a Rain Cold guarantee.

Anyway, the pattern has changed now and it appears to be mostly normal to below (and at times well below) for much of the east. In January, that's not bad. We just need the little pieces to get together, which is a little more difficult without blocking...but it will be doable, if the general pattern depicted remains in place.

It is currently 28 degrees with a light north wind, under sunny skies. Good morning.
 
Rain Cold said:
All of the models continue to show the general go-forward pattern of western riding and eastern troughing. Pattern looks active too. You can see by some of the close misses and a few ensemble hits posted overnight that it's an active pattern, that can support an occasional well-timed hit.

The big missing ingredient is a west-based -NAO. We're just not seeing that want to set up. We see east-based versions of it at times, with the occasional nose into Greenland. If we keep the rest of the pattern and add that, somebody will get a snowstorm. That is a Rain Cold guarantee.

Anyway, the pattern has changed now and it appears to be mostly normal to below (and at times well below) for much of the east. In January, that's not bad. We just need the little pieces to get together, which is a little more difficult without blocking...but it will be doable, if the general pattern depicted remains in place.

It is currently 28 degrees with a light north wind, under sunny skies. Good morning.
Click to expand...

Good news is we don't have to have a -NAO to get a storm. Sure as hell would help though


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Rain Cold said:
All of the models continue to show the general go-forward pattern of western riding and eastern troughing. Pattern looks active too. You can see by some of the close misses and a few ensemble hits posted overnight that it's an active pattern, that can support an occasional well-timed hit.

The big missing ingredient is a west-based -NAO. We're just not seeing that want to set up. We see east-based versions of it at times, with the occasional nose into Greenland. If we keep the rest of the pattern and add that, somebody will get a snowstorm. That is a Rain Cold guarantee.

Anyway, the pattern has changed now and it appears to be mostly normal to below (and at times well below) for much of the east. In January, that's not bad. We just need the little pieces to get together, which is a little more difficult without blocking...but it will be doable, if the general pattern depicted remains in place.

It is currently 28 degrees with a light north wind, under sunny skies. Good morning.
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I feel like I’ve said this and GaWx has confirmed, January’88 was during a +NAO, that should be all anyone needs to know about how necessary it is! ✌️
 
Tarheel1 said:
I feel like I’ve said this and GaWx has confirmed, January’88 was during a +NAO, that should be all anyone needs to know about how necessary it is! ✌️
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It's not necessary. I agree with you. I even said essentially that in my post. All I mean is that it is possible to hit the powerball. But if you start with 4 out of 5 correct numbers, it's a lot easier.
 
26.4F this morning at 2 before ESE winds slowly drove the temperature back up.

Yesterday was 23.9F, lowest of the season.

1641652595052.png
 
Just watching these model runs going back to Christmas Day in terms of pattern progression, they waffle around, as expected.....some ok, some good, some excellent. The overnight runs were in the excellent camp (00z EPS, 06z GFS, 06z GEFS). EPS finally showed some good western ridging and was colder. Pac Jet progression and Aleutian Low maintenance - all very good. The models have remained consistent over the past 4-5 days in showing the best pattern beginning to setup in the Jan 17-18 timeframe. Hopefully we see more model runs in the excellent camp instead of the ok camp going forward.

Saw someone post this photo on Twitter this morning. #9 at Augusta National (maybe from late Jan 2014?)

l1Xe71p.jpg
 
Seems like we are seeing high probability scenarios on the model’s right now. Suppression, cold chasing moisture, not enough energy, etc. a million ways to lose. Hopefully a consistent signal as we get into the 5-7 day range


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ATLwxfan said:
Seems like we are seeing high probability scenarios on the model’s right now. Suppression, cold chasing moisture, not enough energy, etc. a million ways to lose. Hopefully a consistent signal as we get into the 5-7 day range


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There’s not really a cold chasing moisture Situation to me. Cold is there and energy is all around. I can see if a front was coming through for cold chasing moisture but this is a different look to me.
 
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