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Pattern Januworry

griteater said:
Ga - was wondering if you could ask Maxar if the CMC Ens cold bias is more tied to the western U.S.? I see this a lot where it will just keep the Rockies and Great Basin cold no matter the pattern (would be nice to have that in real life huh)

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Grit,
Good to see you here!

1. Nice observation as they said that, indeed, the cold bias is worse out west. They didn't say there was no E cold bias, however. I can tell you that per my own obs that the CMC ens appears to have a general cold bias all over the US, even assuming it is worst out west. This is based on how much colder it tends to be vs the other ensembles on many days for similar H5 patterns. On a good number of days there's often so much blue even in the E US when the EPS and GEFS have nothing of the sort. That being said, there are times the CMC probably does best like during strong radiational cooling (I mean without snowcover) and probably wedges.

2. I may ask them to calculate it for just the E US or better yet for just the SE but don't know if they will be able to.

3. The bias they refer to is for 2 M, but as you're showing it is the worst out west up at 850, too.

4. I wonder if the elevation of the Rockies being mainly above 5K feet/850 is an additional factor for the CDN being cold at 850.
 
Eeehhh, considering what I remember from the past, it probably isn't a big deal that the GEFS isn't throwing any bones, as it's thrown plenty of bones before, and hasn't worked out before.

Let's get this potential pattern fully within 240 hours.
 
GaWx said:
Grit,
Good to see you here!

1. Nice observation as they said that, indeed, the cold bias is worse out west. They didn't say there was no E cold bias, however. I can tell you that per my own obs that the CMC ens appears to have a general cold bias all over the US, even assuming it is worst out west. This is based on how much colder it tends to be vs the other ensembles on many days for similar H5 patterns. On a good number of days there's often so much blue even in the E US when the EPS and GEFS have nothing of the sort. That being said, there are times the CMC probably does best like during strong radiational cooling (I mean without snowcover) and probably wedges.

2. I may ask them to calculate it for just the E US or better yet for just the SE but don't know if they will be able to.

3. The bias they refer to is for 2 M, but as you're showing it is the worst out west up at 850, too.

4. I wonder if the elevation of the Rockies being mainly above 5K feet/850 is an additional factor for the CDN being cold at 850.
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Thanks for checking on that Ga. Glad to be here and to see you in here as well
 
BullCityWx said:
The euro almost has some ocean effect snow for the OBX next week.
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If it gets cold enough and the winds are coming from the right direction, it's almost a guarantee for some areas along the Chesapeake Bay, the sounds, and ocean to see bay/ocean effect snow... hasn't happened in a year or two but it is always exciting, sometimes if the bands are persistent enough some areas can see an hour or two of moderate snow
 
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