Pattern Januworry

[Myfrotho704_]

If there’s one thing the EPS/GEFS agree on, it’s a active southern stream delivering precipitation to the SE, undercutting signals a active southern stream, sort of like a nino

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

What’s BAM saying? He been real quiet lately

 

[Snowfan]

What’s BAM saying? He been real quiet lately

Here’s a tweet:

 

[griteater]

Well, I know from the all knowing (lol) Maxar that the Canadian ensemble has retained its strong cold bias. So, based on that, I doubt it. But if the ensemble output is still based on the older version of the operational, it is possible the operational cold bias was fixed or reduced while the ensemble remains strongly cold biased.

Ga - was wondering if you could ask Maxar if the CMC Ens cold bias is more tied to the western U.S.? I see this a lot where it will just keep the Rockies and Great Basin cold no matter the pattern (would be nice to have that in real life huh)

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Ga - was wondering if you could ask Maxar if the CMC Ens cold bias is more tied to the western U.S.? I see this a lot where it will just keep the Rockies and Great Basin cold no matter the pattern (would be nice to have that in real life huh)

Wonder if that has anything to do with the freezer they was just in with the exceptionally strong -PNA the last 2 weeks of dec

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Might be some light ZR for CAD areas sun morning

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Some noise showing up around the 17th on the EPS

 

[Chazwin]

Some noise showing up around the 17th on the EPS View attachment 102546

Yes… I feel like the 16th-18th is when we should zero in on that time frame, but there’s enough energy and cold air around to have multiple threat just after that. With the MJO progression, +PNA, and the AO looking to go negative I really think we could all have some late nights of model watching coming up. Though I still doubt we see a fully west based -NAO, any bit of blocking near Greenland can only help

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

Some noise showing up around the 17th on the EPS View attachment 102546

18z should be interesting

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Energy digging farther south this GFS run

 

[Rain Cold]

18z GFS going to show a big fantasy storm here in a bit. Buckle up.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Yeah, big developing GL vortex and 2 southern stream waves….

 

[whatalife]

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

Yeah, big developing GL vortex and 2 southern stream waves….View attachment 102563

Woof..like that low height feature off the southeastern coast. Been seeing it a while now. Should keep a ridge from flaring up and spoiling our milk. There are many ways to fail, however.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Southern stream energy and pacific energy in MT entering at the same time with a vortex in S Canada

 

[Chazwin]

Yeah, big developing GL vortex and 2 southern stream waves….View attachment 102563

Definitely like those lower heights over the Atlantic.

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

View attachment 102564

Pretty good west coast ridge extending up and into eastern AK

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

Lots of energy undercutting that +PNA

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Wavebreak printer go brrr, which leads to a nice -NAO, love that SE Canada vortex

 

[Myfrotho704_]

---- the lakes low