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Pattern Januworry

So many moving parts in this pattern. Models having a bit of a hard time with it. But eventually I think we get something to track inside 7 days.


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Euro really extended the pac jet again the end of the run and had a monster Aleutian low

Not a bad thing long term. Will cause some sweaty armpits and thread bans in the short term

Think we just stay the course here in the medium-extended range (Jan 15-30). GEFS is probably too amplified out west and EPS not amplified enough. GEFS is more of a -EPO pattern with episodic cold highs dropping down (colder, better chances farther south and/or Miller B, as has been stated), while EPS is more of a split flow / weak +PNA look (not as cold, but could have some good chances if timing is there). I still think a quick retraction of the jet back to the WPac (back to -PNA) is the least likely scenario. AAM charts are trending up, so, more evidence of westerly momentum getting charged into the Pac jet and keeping it from doing a quick retreat. GEFS is probably overdone on the -NAO, but still think we may have an opportunity there. AAM charts from @MattHugo81 on Twitter

Keeping it simple, on a scale of 1 to 5 with 3 being avg and 5 being excellent, I'd view the 2nd half of Jan as a 4 (better than average).

nugnGB7.jpg


QJfM6zU.jpg
 
Think we just stay the course here in the medium-extended range (Jan 15-30). GEFS is probably too amplified out west and EPS not amplified enough. GEFS is more of a -EPO pattern with episodic cold highs dropping down (colder, better chances farther south and/or Miller B, as has been stated), while EPS is more of a split flow / weak +PNA look (not as cold, but could have some good chances if timing is there). I still think a quick retraction of the jet back to the WPac (back to -PNA) is the least likely scenario. AAM charts are trending up, so, more evidence of westerly momentum getting charged into the Pac jet and keeping it from doing a quick retreat. GEFS is probably overdone on the -NAO, but still think we may have an opportunity there. AAM charts from @MattHugo81 on Twitter

Keeping it simple, on a scale of 1 to 5 with 3 being avg and 5 being excellent, I'd view the 2nd half of Jan as a 4 (better than average).

nugnGB7.jpg


QJfM6zU.jpg
My hunch is that we see a -NAO take shape, but it sets up as more east-based. If I'm wrong and it becomes more favorably oriented, then we can move the dial on your scale from a 4 to a 5. It looks like there's lots of energy to work with.
 
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