Not a bad thing long term. Will cause some sweaty armpits and thread bans in the short termDelayed retraction of the pacific jet so slowed down retrogression process
Not a bad thing long term. Will cause some sweaty armpits and thread bans in the short termDelayed retraction of the pacific jet so slowed down retrogression process
The result of this is slowed down retrogression and renewed troughing around the Aleutians/Alaska, and more western US ridge. it’s something im not mad at, but not necessarily wanting, I’m ready to go thru with the process as it is, not delay itYeah the EPS/control extended the pacific jet a little more around day 8-10 after some retraction View attachment 102522View attachment 102523View attachment 102524
-NAO trends are much more fun to look atThe result of this is slowed down retrogression and renewed troughing around the Aleutians/Alaska, and more western US ridge. it’s something im not mad at, but not necessarily wanting, I’m ready to go thru with the process as it is, not delay it View attachment 102525View attachment 102526
On the eps control yeah, the EPS mean has way less -NAO-NAO trends are much more fun to look at
I’ve seen a lot worse for early mid JanuaryWasn’t a great EPS run but wasn’t bad, solid 6/10
Imagine there are some in North MS, AL that wouldn’t mind Member 46. ?
View attachment 102532
Yeah the OP euro def looked better
Looks opposite? West coastYeah the OP euro def looked better
Euro really extended the pac jet again the end of the run and had a monster Aleutian low
Not a bad thing long term. Will cause some sweaty armpits and thread bans in the short term
My hunch is that we see a -NAO take shape, but it sets up as more east-based. If I'm wrong and it becomes more favorably oriented, then we can move the dial on your scale from a 4 to a 5. It looks like there's lots of energy to work with.Think we just stay the course here in the medium-extended range (Jan 15-30). GEFS is probably too amplified out west and EPS not amplified enough. GEFS is more of a -EPO pattern with episodic cold highs dropping down (colder, better chances farther south and/or Miller B, as has been stated), while EPS is more of a split flow / weak +PNA look (not as cold, but could have some good chances if timing is there). I still think a quick retraction of the jet back to the WPac (back to -PNA) is the least likely scenario. AAM charts are trending up, so, more evidence of westerly momentum getting charged into the Pac jet and keeping it from doing a quick retreat. GEFS is probably overdone on the -NAO, but still think we may have an opportunity there. AAM charts from @MattHugo81 on Twitter
Keeping it simple, on a scale of 1 to 5 with 3 being avg and 5 being excellent, I'd view the 2nd half of Jan as a 4 (better than average).