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Pattern Januworry

SD said:
I don't understand the needing weenie maps at D7+ for validation of a great pattern. Very few times have we seen a storm from D7-10 work out and even from D5-7
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This was the gfs from 12/30 for today, sorry TN your mega snowstorm isn't real bc the gfs didn't have it at D7
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As weather hobbyists, we all enjoy the long track winter storms that the operational and ensemble models latch onto 10-14 days out and we can just look at every run with growing anticipation… one of the most fun examples of this was the February 2014 storms that we watched from 10 days out and just followed it from there. However, we’ve all seen too many storms over the years that didn’t show up until inside 5-7 days to completely ignore possibilities this progressing pattern has a chance to give us. I said the last couple of days and still continue to believe that the 15th-20th timeframe looks very good with potential for a widespread hit across the south, including places that are very much overdue.
 
An interesting thing to keep in mind is that all 8 of the major ice and sleetstorms in Atlanta since the late 1970s occurred while the MJO was near or more often inside the circle. This analysis however doesn’t include NE GA to NC storms that didn’t give ATL enough to be considered major. So, I can’t comment on those. Also, a sample size of 8 still isn’t large. So, some of this may be coincidence. However, being inside the circle has been colder on average than when outside the circle in at least January and I think December.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
But the dec 2018 storm remember
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Um yeah - BIG failure for some of us. Our governor called a state of emergency ahead of the storm and called it "Historic." We were expected to get the biggest dump in decades and it was modeled for days. Reality.... 3 inches of sloppy icy mess for a few areas. ?
 
Iceagewhereartthou said:
Um yeah - BIG failure for some of us. Our governor called a state of emergency ahead of the storm and called it "Historic." We were expected to get the biggest dump in decades and it was modeled for days. Reality.... 3 inches of sloppy icy mess for a few areas. ?
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I’d take that at this point
 
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