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Pattern January Thread - The Final Chapter

0z GFS is rolling out...standing by. It may be more interesting, specially with that second disturbance. So far, WV looks like they will get some good snows. Anyone here from WV?

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Looks like the trough is more vertical than a tilt. More interesting for sure than 18z GFS.

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NorthGAWinterWx said:
0z GFS is rolling out...standing by. It may be more interesting, specially with that second disturbance. So far, WV looks like they will get some good snows. Anyone here from WV?

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Wrong side of the mountains here. I might move after I retire:) Like the idea of winning on NWflow events. Beautiful country out that way too! On topic, it is sad that it looks like we lost the sustained cold look from several days ago.
 
Watching that 2nd disturbance as well at 108-114.

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So this one has some precip in ENC...that's an interesting development. At the very least, this kind of set up is very frustrating and one or two tweaks could cause a completely different outcome than what we thought was going to happen. Not saying it will though, but it's possible.
 
I'm thinking that 2nd disturbance will have more moisture as it moves west to east. That second disturbance should develop more interesting looks on each run. I like the looks of this. HP over the Plains giving us a north wind.

Edit: That second disturbance could possibly come down further south.

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Wow the 0z improved even more then the 12z. I'm at a little over 2 inches of snow per this run. Cash me out now please!

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0z CMC is wetter and the low is further south but not by all that much with that second disturbance. That second disturbance will be worth keeping an eye on as well. If that low comes even further south, it will also push the colder air further south.

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For some, even if precipitation maps on these models don't show anything, I would think you'd see flurries as the energy consolidates and tries to spark something (and fails).

I'm willing to bet a big chunk of those in the SE who are close to freezing at the boundary layer will see little flurries around. I would not be surprised with the lower thicknesses involved, to see flurries down to areas like ATL, CAE, FLO, MYR, WLM, CLT, RAL.

Those are just some examples at I-20 and above in the GA/SC/NC region. The moisture that gets involved from the interaction will be squeezed out, if that makes sense. Not saying anything like a big event. Just don't be surprised close to I-20 and north in those areas if you notice some tiny flurries around, like dandruff.
 
Shawn said:
For some, even if precipitation maps on these models don't show anything, I would think you'd see flurries as the energy consolidates and tries to spark something (and fails).

I'm willing to bet a big chunk of those in the SE who are close to freezing at the boundary layer will see little flurries around. I would not be surprised with the lower thicknesses involved, to see flurries down to areas like ATL, CAE, FLO, MYR, WLM, CLT, RAL.

Those are just some examples at I-20 and above in the GA/SC/NC region. The moisture that gets involved from the interaction will be squeezed out, if that makes sense. Not saying anything like a big event. Just don't be surprised close to I-20 and north in those areas if you notice some tiny flurries around, like dandruff.
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Any chance North GA gets a light dusting ?
 
SoutheastRidge said:
Any chance North GA gets a light dusting ?
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I wouldn't go with that. That would be a really cool thing to see, forecast or not though.

Our guys at CAE mentioned the EURO (earlier today at 12z) was a bit more robust with precipitation. So I would think N. GA is in a good spot to seem a little more than flurries. A dusting? Might be stretching it with the data I have seen recently. Lets hope it over produces for you.
 
Shawn said:
I wouldn't go with that. That would be a really cool thing to see, forecast or not though.

Our guys at CAE mentioned the EURO (earlier today at 12z) was a bit more robust with precipitation. So I would think N. GA is in a good spot to seem a little more than flurries. A dusting? Might be stretching it with the data I have seen recently. Lets hope it over produces for you.
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Seeing snow falling in the beginning and end of a month that was otherwise a torch would be pretty remarkable.
 
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