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Pattern January thread part deux

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metwannabe said:
Well this has been entertainment reading to catch up. Lol

As usual some very good discussion, don't think I'll ever have the time to fully learn all the aspects of long range forecasting.

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Overall, it's a crapshoot.  Some things are helpful, but when one moving part fails to materialize, the whole roller coaster falls apart.
 
Shawn said:
metwannabe said:
Well this has been entertainment reading to catch up. Lol

As usual some very good discussion, don't think I'll ever have the time to fully learn all the aspects of long range forecasting.

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Overall, it's a crapshoot.  Some things are helpful, but when one moving part fails to materialize, the whole roller coaster falls apart.
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Oh yeah and you also have to really take the time to dig deep and analyze every moving part just to come to a potential crap shot. Haha

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SD wanted to know so.....Site is working great for me. My idiotic post was seen immediately after clicking "post reply". When i went back & clicked "quick edit" to erase it & talk about how ridiculous/embarrassing it was without enough info and clicked "save changes" it once again was seen immediately. Hopefully very few posters will have to go this route. :)
 
Picking the mic back up.

My met professor once said "A North-West trend is akin to the models correcting with delayed cold". I truly believe we will see the model bias once the severe weather sweeps east and the models defog their long range view. This will not give us a winter storm anytime between now and the first week of February.

I still believe the climo areas like backyard will see another winter system mid-late February into March before winter ends. I do not think it will favor the line from Columbia, SC to Atlanta, GA at all in the new pattern.
 
Can't see the post on my laptop but I saw it on my iPad. That's not exactly how it works. You can't exactly cancel a pattern change. Does it necessarily mean we're going to see really cold temps? Maybe not, but again, everything suggests that the western trough pattern starts to show signs of ending late next week. Perhaps it means we just go back to slight below to average temps though.

And once again, while it may not make sense, the biggest deep south snows do not happen in January. They're rare though so it's possible that January was it for the I-20 corridor.
 
lol, every heard someone say it's too cold to snow? Minus 21 and snowing here in Alaska
[font=Arial, Helvetica,]illage Airport
[font=Arial, Helvetica,]17:56[/font]
[font=Arial, Helvetica,]Light Snow[/font]
[font=Arial, Helvetica,]-21[/font]
[font=Arial, Helvetica,]-26[/font]
[font=Arial, Helvetica,]77[/font]
[font=Arial, Helvetica,]S 8[/font]
[font=Arial, Helvetica,]29.18[/font][/font]
 
One thing for certain we can forecast, verbatim, all of the south-east states including the higher elevations will benefit from these warm ground temperatures if we see a ice storm threat, the impact won't be as severe. Similar to out west just recently, still damaging but some areas were not bad as feared due to slightly above normal temps.

Also this should help melt the first few inches of wintry precip if it's snow and not ice. However, the pattern I see does not favor snow for many. New details to come stay tuned. Mic dropped.
 
WilkesboroDude said:
Picking the mic back up.

My met professor once said "A North-West trend is akin to the models correcting with delayed cold". I truly believe we will see the model bias once the severe weather sweeps east and the models defog their long range view. This will not give us a winter storm anytime between now and the first week of February.

I still believe the climo areas like backyard will see another winter system mid-late February into March before winter ends. I do not think it will favor the line from Columbia, SC to Atlanta, GA at all in the new pattern.
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Lol. Trolling at it's best. Keep making posts like this and we will see a nice snowstorm pop up in no time. Ever since you have been posting the models have been better and better. Can't wait to see you bust.
 
Don't understand why someone wants to be the Black Raven of a weather community. To each their own I guess.
 
Shawn said:
Don't understand why someone wants to be the Black Raven of a weather community.  To each their own I guess.
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Me either. Hoping he will bust so we can move on.
 
WilkesboroDude said:
One thing for certain we can forecast, verbatim, all of the south-east states including the higher elevations will benefit from these warm ground temperatures if we see a ice storm threat, the impact won't be as severe. Similar to out west just recently, still damaging but some areas were not bad as feared due to slightly above normal temps.

Also this should help melt the first few inches of wintry precip if it's snow and not ice. However, the pattern I see does not favor snow for many. New details to come stay tuned. Mic dropped.
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Oh we can't wait :huh:
 
The cutter that I've been saying is bringing the pattern change was much faster and weaker so this time it didn't, but this time the pattern on the GFS looks progressive to me instead of either side really being in a trough or ridge pattern. So far at least.

edit: okay nevermind, I'm wrong. The western ridge starts developing just a bit later, and the odd thing is, this time the storm that is involved is a southern slider rainstorm instead of a cutter. Now we're really getting into fantasy land, but it'll be fun to look at this purely for entertainment purposes.
 
Unfortunately there's not much fun to talk about with the GFS. That fantasy GOM storm tried to fire itself up in Arizona but quickly died, so there's not much to note except it does have it get cold late next week after this long warm period.
 
0z GFS is golden for the NC ski resorts by hour 228 and after. Plenty of cold air for snow making and looks like several inches of real snow possible along the TN line.
 
Doesn't stop snowing through 384, plenty of snow showery weather to our north in WV into NY. Could help transport the cold via CAD with the right H placement if model was extrapolated out further. Too far out and would likely be nothing to work with first week of Feb IMO..probably have to wait a week or two after that.
 
WilkesboroDude said:
Doesn't stop snowing through 384, plenty of snow showery weather to our north in WV into NY. Could help transport the cold via CAD with the right H placement if model was extrapolated out further. Too far out and would likely be nothing to work with first week of Feb IMO..probably have to wait a week or two after that.
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Do us a favor and quit posting your garbage. We know what you are trying to do. You made the statement last week that we would not see a return to cold for 4-5 weeks. Now, you are talking about wintry weather. We don't want trolls in our forum. Got it.....Furthermore, you are not in college for Meteorology, because you don't know the first thing about pattern recognition.
 
WilkesboroDude said:
Skipping 5 weeks will bring the mojo. Nothing to see here folks until after a few severe storms move through and the cold can undercut the S/E mid to late February. Then we may have something on our hands.
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Here it is, for reference....
 
Not a bad look at all on the 6z GFS. Our PNA ridge is out of lala land and what could be a threat in and around the 200hr mark.
 
This gives me the warm fuzzies 

gfs-ens_z500a_nhem_65.png
 
Arcc said:
Not a bad look at all on the 6z GFS. Our PNA ridge is out of lala land and what could be a threat in and around the 200hr mark.
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Yeah it's not a horrible look. Comes in too flat this run . But interesting
6402df3d4c53b54ac526b22c57749c34.jpg
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Leave Wilkes alone guys, he is merely waiting for the sky to heal from the last snow  :dodgy:
 
If you ignore the trolling it will eventually go away, either voluntarily or involuntarily but whatever you do..... Don't Feed The Trolls
 
That southern slider rainstorm that suddenly appeared could end up being very interesting if the cutter before then comes back in stronger than it has, as its been what's brought the cold in right after it until 0z earlier today. In the 0z its delayed more.
 
Or maybe it won't be. The cutter is stronger which is what I wanted to see, but that slider that is a rainstorm due to it being too warm develops right off of it.
 
CFSV2 certainly impressive with the latest run. Would be hard not to score mid Feb IF we have moisture to work with by then.

It's a shame we are losing this upcoming Sunday into Monday storm to warm air while Alaska is -50. If we had our cold air like we are suppose to during the Carolina's coldest week avg climo, this would be a Blizzard Warning for north GA, upstate SC, western NC, et cetera with a few feet and drifts as high as several feet.

I still like my idea of cold coming in Feb but starting to get a little worried about washing things out before then could leave us dry with just mountain up-slope snows and down-sloping for the Piedmont regions. Obviously, too far out to be too pessimistic, will just have to wait and see.
 
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Around that time period it continues to switch from really warm weather with a cutter or a different storm but it might just be to around average temps...or not.
 
It doesn't do it but it's close...if the trough can set itself up near the Mississippi (as has been said elsewhere), we might see something soon. It's still a might though, it's just as likely that we just see a return of Old Man Winter with sunny skies.

The encouraging thing still is...I don't think the western trough returns but we do see a much more progressive pattern after a short time period of an eastern trough.
 
Holy wow at the 12Z GFS hours 348-384 (for entertainment...check out that Arctic airmass in Canada plunging down!)
 
Surprised little talk about the clipper pattern showing up, I agree with @crankywxguy on Twitter. Very favorable for the higher elevations of NC,TN, and maybe north GA. Models support that more than any coastal bombing thus far.
 
See not too far off from my idea, that would be post week 1 by the time it enters the S/E. First week of Feb does not look cold it looks rainy.
 
not sure why people are complaining m the 12z gfs was a great run for the pattern change and colder weather . Positive PNA /-epo . I guess people want to see day 10 plus fantasy storms or clippers that won't verify.

Gotta get a colder pattern for wintry weather . that's step one. Step one looks right on track

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Storm5 said:
not sure why people are complaining m the 12z gfs was a great run for the pattern change and colder weather . Positive PNA /-epo . I guess people want to see day 10 plus fantasy storms or clippers that won't verify.

Gotta get a colder pattern for wintry weather . that's step one. Step one looks right on track

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Yeah, seeing that PNA ridge established does my heart good. My favorite pattern is trying to set up.
 
GaWx said:
Holy wow at the 12Z GFS hours 348-384 (for entertainment...check out that Arctic airmass in Canada plunging down!)
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look at the ridge in western canada . it's only got one direction it can go . SE!
88214101591ab4e29518b3a22da64e62.jpg


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