accu35
Member
End of next week looks like big potential. That’s a strong upper low with lots of energy. Could be a great one to track and not tha far off
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Pattern January Joke
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
No doubt. lol. I’ll be out there the 2nd week of Feb. I’m 0/3 the last 3 years ha.
Canadian got that look. Survive and advance.
It’s tbd whether we can even miller A anymore. It tries to miller B our miller A here then went as far as to miller B it a second time over . Idk how to track snow any more 
BKWRN29
Member
Does anyone have any guidance on how Dec 2017 looked at the same time frame as next weekends potential? I would kill for another event like that.
Nothing like that. This will be a big phaser if it happens and boy are the players on the field for something epic.
The models have been honking their horn at this for days...I cant wait for this mess to go way so we can focus on that one if it is still there.
That southern wave is crazily suppressed south.
Very *January 16th 2023* looking storm. Only it came out of Alberta/Saskatchewan and into Nebraska and Kansas instead of Iowa and Manitoba. The ridge was also tighter out west. But plenty of time to watch the trends but Greenland blocking doesn't seem like its leaving anytime soon, so we have that.
Yall starting this already? lol Brave
That or the thing that shouldn't be named except suppressed west to east from the -NAO.
The GFS is absolutely idiotic with these extreme stupid cold readings over snowcover.
NEGaweather
Member
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rburrel2
Member
Gfs ai has an eye popper too. Drops two feet in charlotte
Ale yeh we are back.
rburrel2
Member
Mitch you’ll need to get your calculator out to add up your gfs ai snow.
NEGaweather
Member
John1122
Member
It's probably time to decommission the GFS. It has a band of ocean effect snow from Tampa Bay down to almost Lake Okeechobee.
SnowNiner
Member
broken025
Member
Crazy GFS run. Almost 60 inches in NYC between both storms.
SegTindo
Member
SegTindo
Member
Can’t believe you getting upset over a 200 hours out on a model.
Not to mention it’s probably gonna go back and forth considering that we haven’t even made it pass the first storm
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GFS AI with a big one.
GFS AI Snow
LittleMountain
Member
If nothing else. This weekends storm and next weekend’s modeling are MOIST. Haven’t seen numbers like what we’ve gotten on the snow outputs in a long time
SnowNiner
Member
Any ensemble noise for next weekend? Looked pretty good a couple days ago.
rburrel2
Member
Wow.
GEFS is much more enthused for next weekend at the moment. EPS had a great signal but really lessened it yesterday at 12z and last night at 00z.
Would be curious to see how the AI models and weather next models look as well. Hope we can reel this one in!
Would be curious to see how the AI models and weather next models look as well. Hope we can reel this one in!
Need weathernext on board, has been money lately
Yeah I wish I had access to this model lol it’s been the best by far
I don't typically watch AI models, maybe someone that does could answer this question. Do they typically have the Northeastern trend on storm systems? Do they handle 76+ day temps pretty well?
SnowNiner
Member
That's actually perfect at this lead time, unlike this weekend's system that started us in the bullseye.
When looking at the soundings for the crazy low temps the GFS is printing out for MBY, where it assumes ICE-covered vegetation, it takes the 2m air temperture right down to the dew point. By comparison, the coldest model during the storm with by far the most ice accumulation, the ICON is drastically different. Something of interest to look for on Tuesday morning.
![soundings-[33.75,-83.75]-gfs-sfct_b-imp-us_se-2026012306-102.png](https://southernwx.nyc3.digitaloceanspaces.com/data/attachments/187/187962-2a6408f411b19e972053df3c968c56f3.jpg "soundings-[33.75,-83.75]-gfs-sfct_b-imp-us_se-2026012306-102.png")
![soundings-[33.75,-83.75]-icon-sfct_b-imp-us_se-2026012306-102.png](https://southernwx.nyc3.digitaloceanspaces.com/data/attachments/187/187964-50231fece62f244b8b2ed75714c1b302.jpg "soundings-[33.75,-83.75]-icon-sfct_b-imp-us_se-2026012306-102.png")
Ain’t happening. Long as GFS is showing it it’s a definite no go.
GeorgiaGirl
Member
The Euro has honked a little bit (and may have had one run that was just plain crazy, idk for sure), but as of today, it's suppressed.
Which would normally be okay, but we remember what occurred with late January last year...
for what it's worth i'm completely over "long" storms. i think it's an internal rule of mine now.
what i mean by that is i am over storms that show up in long range models as long, zonal stretches of precip from texas to north carolina
this weekend is the most egregious example, but that shape never pans out. it happened last year too. a kink in the line forms somewhere and if it's too far out west, it raises heights to the east and the jig is up. no more.
shooting this preamble off to say, refreshing to see a clipper and a coastal out here. known entities.
what i mean by that is i am over storms that show up in long range models as long, zonal stretches of precip from texas to north carolina
this weekend is the most egregious example, but that shape never pans out. it happened last year too. a kink in the line forms somewhere and if it's too far out west, it raises heights to the east and the jig is up. no more.
shooting this preamble off to say, refreshing to see a clipper and a coastal out here. known entities.