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Pattern January Joke

On 1/18/2026, the EPO dropped way down to -3.81. That was the lowest daily EPO in January since way back on 1/26/1991, when it was -3.99. Before 1991, you had to go back to 1974 and 1963 to have an EPO<-3.81 in January.

The combo of this extreme -EPO helping to produce extremely cold Arctic highs and a strong +PNA to steer them down in our direction with the aid of a strong -AO is why there is that 1050ish Arctic high with mega-cold coming down later this week that is a key factor resulting in this weekend’s big SE winter storm threat.

 
Rain Cold said:
I was just going to say the same thing lol...when will we learn that we need snow in Cuba at 144 hours before it can snow around here?
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Just stop cheering on the wrong things. I know message boards have 0 effect on weather but I swear to God I'm going to flip my ---- on the next person that wants a phase in El paso or "amped" at day 10.
 
SD said:
Just stop cheering on the wrong things. I know message boards have 0 effect on weather but I swear to God I'm going to flip my ---- on the next person that wants a phase in El paso or "amped" at day 10.
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I know, 3 days ago, I was like, "what are we doing?" Maybe we could have a scrolling message for that too.
 
Not sure I can track anything else after this debacle and I am ready for the blocking to collapse and pacific air flood the conus with warm air once into Feb...if there is a god of mercy they will atleast give us that.

But...for now legit threat next weekend...miller A style...our speciality.

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-nhemi-z500_anom_1day-9860800.pnggfs-ensemble-all-avg-conus-snow_96hr_inch-0163200.png
 
Maybe I'm wrong but not seeing even the same bulletproof favorable conditions we had at this same range last week for the weekend's storm
 
Don't throw rocks at me, but the Weeklies look crazy good. It's a Webb eastward pushed Indo-Pacific warm pool / pseudo–Nino February. It you thought this week's heartbreak was bad, wait til we miss on another big one in February. We're gonna feel like the Buffalo Bills in 1994

Jan 21 Euro 1.gif


It keeps going...

Jan 21 Euro 2.gif
 
I don't ever recall seeing this chart look like this (from the Weeklies). It shows -NAO as being the dominant weather regime (green going left to right on the bottom of the chart) in the Euro-Atlantic sector for each day from Jan 22 to Feb 18. This is across the 101 Weeklies ensemble members

20260121200320-a5a9a15e9d22b541577726a8e889cc5f1b5a75e6.png
 
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