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Pattern January Joke

Giddy up the pattern for that 25th -28th is as good as it gets! If we don't see a big winter storm out of that we should all just give up. -NAO mega HP leads to a perfect Cold Feed. May lead to a Miller B Mixed Mess But there would lots of Snow in there as well
 
Wade2026 said:
The ensembles look amazing for Jan 25th-29th timeframe. They also looked awesome three days ago. But maybe this will have Big Dog potential. The Southern Piedmont is going on quite the snowless streak.
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Welcome to the forum! My maternal grandfather was born in Richmond County a long time ago. Here's to ending that snowless streak soon.
 
Incredibly intriguing pattern on the Euro AI Ensemble mean that we’ve been scouting in here for a while now

1. Retrograding Scandi to Greenland blocking ridge

2. NW Atlantic / 50-50 Low anomaly forming - with surface high behind it / west of it

3. Pacific Jet extending in MJO Phase 7-8 - you can see that with the sizeable low moving east into the Gulf of Alaska and then subsequently sending waviness through the west coast ridge where the waves are forced to dig southeast in the confluent pattern over the Northeast forced by the retrograding block and 50-50 low anomaly, eventually deepening the east coast trough


Thoughts / Questions:
1. Can we get the models to hold this big picture look? The sizeable MJO pass helps on the Pac side. The retrograding block part may be more difficult to get right. Always tough up there. But a long time out to hold the look

2. It’s possible this look only lasts for a week or so…if so, gotta cash in when ripe. Pattern could be fruitful for us…or north of us in Mid Atlantic / NE

3. Which goes back to WxGSO’s point that simple timing of matching a wave up with cold high pressure to the north becomes paramount. Bad timing - no go

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Mean surface pattern - how good is that?

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At this range and with this look when was the last time we saw such a consistent pic across the major globals. One that didn't work out.
 
T
CaryWx said:
At this range and with this look when was the last time we saw such a consistent pic across the major globals. One that didn't work out.
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The last time I can remember us even having this strong a signal across all ensembles at this range was February 2014.
 
Yeah it didn't work out. Models were all showing a banger of a storm 7+ days out.

The one that did? March 93.

CaryWx said:
At this range and with this look when was the last time we saw such a consistent pic across the major globals. One that didn't work out.

I don't get a hit for march 2001 on any NC snow mapuo
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packfan98 said:
Here was the final mean. That elusive 6 inch mean was creeping closer.
View attachment 184378
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Am I the only one blown away by this? I’ve been a weenie and tracking a long time now. I’ve never seen such a high mean that far out. Close to a 5 inch mean for mby? Crazy. And the Euro AI for that matter.

Surely it can’t be serious.

griteater said:
AI Weathernext ensemble snow on SV post Jan 24

View attachment 184390
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That’s amazing too. Amazing what can be modeled when you have cold entering the conus from a good pacific AND a true -NAO.

Can this just happen once please?
 
SnowNiner said:
Am I the only one blown away by this? I’ve been a weenie and tracking a long time now. I’ve never seen such a high mean that far out. Close to a 5 inch mean for mby? Crazy. And the Euro AI for that matter.

Surely it can’t be serious.



That’s amazing too. Amazing what can be modeled when you have cold entering the conus from a good pacific AND a true -NAO.

Can this just happen once please?
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It high up there man. Been a while no doubt
 
I mean obviously this could all fall apart, but synoptically it makes sense. If the NAO blocking comes together as modeled, we appear to finally have some semblance of a southern jet leading into this period while also having favorable MJO pass in prime climo. Will really be a kick in the pants if a decent winter storm doesn’t materialize. Quite different than northern stream dominance we’ve seen thus far.


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packfan98 said:
Here was the final mean. That elusive 6 inch mean was creeping closer.
View attachment 184378
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I can’t unsee this now. If this evaporates like the GEFS did for Sunday, I don’t think I’ll be able to take it. Like grit says it probably comes down to whether or not the 50/50 really sets up for a true block and confluence.
 
83a5a9fb08d2fdc64cb79a3dc2b18a15.jpg

Tucked 980mb nuke. Feet of snow


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There is a real chance that by the end of the month, the Great Lakes could be approaching record ice cover. And, extensive snow cover will be in place over the Midwest and upper plains. With the right pattern, this not only increases the chances of snow in the South but also heightens the risk of an extreme Arctic outbreak before the end of the month or into early February.
 
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