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Pattern January Joke

rburrel thanks for posting that. I was just coming over to say, after scanning all the physics models to not sleep on Thursday. The Icon latest could have gone one more frame, it looks like it was gonna put frozen down east of Apps as well.

8 degrees up top of Beach Mtn and the Guns are blasting. Big weekend up there coming up.
16 at house probably bottom out at 15.
 
The GFS actually sped up the threat here shocked face 👀

I was just telling someone local the globals will probably be too slow and warm if it's Arctic air here like usual
 
Currently 14 at my house. Why do people even bother posting the GFS more than 48 hours away? We just saw how AWFUL it is and see it every year, just ignore it and don't bother taking up bandwidth by posting its post 48 hours maps?
 
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21 in SW Wilson county NC


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rburrel2 said:
Best snow mean of the season. And most of that is focused over one time-period.

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Thanks! It's amazing and concerning at the same time how good seeing this makes me feel. That's an excellent mean that far out, on a great model. To your point, the best we've seen all year. That checks considering the pattern and the seemingly available high pressure to our north modeled at the time. The 24th to 28th time frame is our time slot (NC/SC piedmont) I believe. Seems like it's been on the target list of the EPS AI for several days now, not a slam dunk of course but I'm hopeful.

EPS AI has my attention the way its handled this weekend's event. I'm paying attention for sure.

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SD said:
If that pattern verifies and it doesn't snow I'm going straight to team heat miser and severe
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Yep, I hear you...I have a feeling I will need a short term ban right after that period as I will be on full blown tilt if we go all of January with multiple chances in a blocky pattern with nothing. Especially after watching a pounding rain on Sunday at 35F.
 
Bottomed out at exactly 16° this morning in Landis, NC. This was right around the same time we had our minimum temperature last year, we’ll see if we can beat it later this winter.
 
KyloG said:
I really hope we don’t look back and ask ourselves…how did we screw this up. 😩

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The big possible fail I see is it turning dry. You kinda see that southern stream action dry up in time, and the trough shifts too far east. I think we need that STJ to keep cranking. But from what I've seen, the AIFS has been pretty wet in the SE during this timeframe so I don't know.
 
As we look beyond this weekend's system that all eyes have been on, it's virtually a lock that the three-week period, peak climo, the MJO will be moving through phases 7-8-1 as the La Nina fades into an El Niño. Can't ask for much more than that to end winter.
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Taking a quick glace at the models, the next storm on January 25-26 looks like it might be a Apps cutter and that never works out well for most of us. During the January 28th time frame we might get another shot at grabbing the brass ring if there is any validity to the noise the models are making.
 
It was 22.7 at my residence near Lake Wheeler in Wake County this morning. It's too bad, too sad that this arctic air couldn't hang around a couple more days and greet the precipitation that's coming in. We do need the rain badly, most of North Carolina is now in a severe drought.
 
Wild Weather Monger said:
As we look beyond this weekend's system that all eyes have been on, it's virtually a lock that the three-week period, peak climo, the MJO will be moving through phases 7-8-1 as the La Nina fades into an El Niño. Can't ask for much more than that to end winter.
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If BOMM is right though I'll crash out. There are folks around still doubting we get in to 8. Hopefully that convection is still fully getting to the Americas and there's straight subsidence in the maritimes and W Pacific.
 
CaryWx said:
The theme this winter is the lack of any really water feed. Promises dampen out. We are in a drought and this makes sense. Not even receiving measurable rain systems. Maybe his changes soon.,.really soon
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That ICON map I posted would probably verify. Drought begets drought.
 
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