Pattern January Joke

[weather nerd]

James is soooo scared to forecast winter weather. He hedges all bets and has no clue how to forecast winter threats

yeah well, when you are him, with a reputation, you have to think that what he says can affect all the local business and government functions. it can cost people a lot of money if things shut down and nothing happens, so why add to the chaos, let the nws deal with it

 

[bncho]

The GFS is ALMOST a tucked bomb verbatim. 994 low off of the outer banks. This thing will keep trending west too.

 

[WolfpackHomer91]

Id like to see more Tilt still to get the fire hose unkinked in the Gulf. I wanna start seeing some .5-.75” QPF numbers soon then .75-1.25” by game time if not this will be some loser 1-3” event like the rest…. Risk the amping and take the QPF every time.


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[Snowflowxxl]

UK is perfectly fine for 5 days out.

 

[Tsappfrog20]

Id like to see more Tilt still to get the fire hose unkinked in the Gulf. I wanna start seeing some .5-.75” QPF numbers soon then .75-1.25” by game time if not this will be some loser 1-3” event like the rest…. Risk the amping and take the QPF every time.


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If you offered me 3” right now and calls it quits I would gladly accept that offer


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[Parker]

looks to have a similar footprint as the op so far.
View attachment 183323

Love seeing all of that back to the west and in Louisiana and southern Mississippi.

 

[griteater]

i really don't mind this evolution at all, small step back from 00z but feels like noise, not a warning shot

Yeah was going to say model noise as well. Not quite as sharp at the base / touch more positive tilt. Not as much sfc reflection off the coast. UKMet is kind of a wild child too. It can be jumpy rather than slowly trending in one direction

 

[GaWx]

Don't think we're done trending west. The upstream pattern over the Pacific keeps ticking back.

View attachment 183319

View attachment 183324

Due to similarities in the indices to 1/28-9/14, look for more jumps NW most likely as the too far SE model bias unwinds since the event is still 4 days out. There’s still plenty of time for that, especially because the trend shows no sign of stopping yet. 2014 trended NW til closer than we are to this one.

 

[RBR71]

UKMet

View attachment 183331

This is good at this range, needed to reign in NW trend anyway. I think GFS just about as far west as it could go, maybe a little more but not much. Models will hone in on a final track soon enough. As long as Euro isn't a complete whiff, we good lol

 

[bncho]

Consensus is there for a more juiced up event on the GEFS. Also a slight NW trend

 

[packfan98]

Consensus is there for a more juiced up event on the GEFS. Also a slight NW trend
View attachment 183336

At this lead time, the Ensembles are going to mirror the op somewhat. Biggest difference is a general flatter and out to sea look than the op. That means that the op is on the western side of the guidance. It does have some support from some of the members though. Steady as she goes!

 

[Psalm 148:8]

Where’s the thread boo?? This thing has legs!!! At least for some if not most of us!

 

[griteater]

I predict the Euro will be in between the GFS and UKMet

 

[RBR71]

We will start a thread soon enough, no offense but no need to clutter this thread asking. Thanks.

 

[GaWx]

I vote yes

I vote for a thread ASAP. The 1/28-9/14 storm thread was started six days out (1/22) by me (before SouthernWx existed):

1/28-2/1: Multiple winter storm threats per models

Folks,I couldn't wait any more to start this thread. The ducks are on the pond bigtime. The projected pattern is screaming one or two major winter threats. There have been multiple Euro/GFS runs over the last week or so showing on and off one or two storms from Miller A's/B's producing major S, I...

www.americanwx.com

 

[CaryWx]

We will start a thread soon enough, no offense but no need to clutter this thread asking. Thanks.

Need a 2nd opinion from the 12z good Dr still...

 

[weather bubba]

As far as a thread, it is still a bit early for that. There is the chance that we might be talking about a App cutter when all is said and done. I think that 72 hours before would be good for a thread if things are still looking like they do now.

 

[RBR71]

As far as a thread, it is still a bit early for that. There is the chance that we might be talking about a App cutter when all is said and done. I think that 72 hours before would be good for a thread if things are still looking like they do now.

A thread will most likely go up after the Euro and I highly doubt this turns into an apps cutter.

 

[Brandon10]

NW trend is inevitable but I dont think this can go too far NW. This looks like a snow back to the triad but the jackpot being from Greenville NC to ELizabeth City IMO based on past events.

 

[Avalanche]

A thread will most likely go up after the Euro and I highly doubt this turns into an apps cutter.

I think there needs to be a distinction between nw trend and apps cutter. The first doesn’t mean the second.

 

[NewnanWetather]

But the UK shows no precip over our area. I am close to your area.

yeah well, when you are him, with a reputation, you have to think that what he says can affect all the local business and government functions. it can cost people a lot of money if things shut down and nothing happens, so why add to the chaos, let the nws deal with it

GA Mets not saying anything about snow except the far most no truth counties tonight and it's not supposed to matter much. Even Glenn Butns is not saying anything.

 

[BullCityWx]

Euro AI is gonna be slightly improved.

Edit: It's all rain but QPF did go up.

 

[jackendrickwx]

i won't worry too much about the thermos on the EC-AI yet. gotta like the H5 trend

 

[BullCityWx]

Actually I think the Euro AI is a perfect example of how this could all go wrong.

 

[EastmanGAWX]

GA Mets not saying anything about snow except the far most no truth counties tonight and it's not supposed to matter much. Even Glenn Butns is not saying anything.

Chris Zelman at WALB in Albany, GA has already made a social media post about potential 1-3 inch totals across South Georgia. However, the Macon area market seems to be playing it conservatively as of now.

 

[weather nerd]

not so sure i'd put much credit in the ai models handling these kinds of rare situations for us down here. i know they have a lot of data, but they also have a lot of "common sense" programmed in; and climo says it don't snow big time here much

 

[jackendrickwx]

Actually I think the Euro AI is a perfect example of how this could all go wrong.

the faster/less digging progression on Sunday is what gets me the most about it right now

 

[mydoortotheworld]

i won't worry too much about the thermos on the EC-AI yet. gotta like the H5 trend

View attachment 183339

I’m kind of worried a bit about how the Atlantic ridge is also pumping with each run, I know it’s a thread the needle situation but I hope this trend slows a bit

 

[NBAcentel]

board is gonna popping after this euro run

 

[jrips27]

Yeah this is gonna be better

 

[BullCityWx]

BUFKIT seems to match up with the GFS for Raleigh west which is always a good sign. It does like the concept of not being all snow from RDU east

 

[griteater]

Actually I think the Euro AI is a perfect example of how this could all go wrong.

Both AI’s are a red flag right now for sure. Both don’t have enough separation between the lead wave that generates the precip up thru E TN on Saturday and the trailing wave diving down for our coastal

 

[Mitch West]

Good lord what a trend.

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

board is gonna popping after this euro run View attachment 183340

@BurgerTime

 

[NCSNOW]

Both AI’s are a red flag right now for sure. Both don’t have enough separation between the lead wave that generates the precip up thru E TN on Saturday and the trailing wave diving down for our coastal

If the reg Euro lines up with the GFS here in a second. It will be a great battle / case study to see who raises the white flag 1st. Physics models v/s AI models

 

[weather nerd]

i think the euro is going to be middle between ukmet and op gfs here shortly, it should look better versus it's previous run as a whole

 

[Ross]

If the reg Euro lines up with the GFS here in a second. It will be a great battle / case study to see who raises the white flag 1st. Physics models v/s AI models

totally agree. i want to get a grasp on what they are good at and what they are bad at

 

[Mitch West]

Extending all the way to Colorado.

 

[Mahomeless]

So does this mean that us North Alabama folks is out of the game?

No…this will continue to trend north and west…it is the absolute perfect setup for snow in central/north AL, through northern GA, eastern TN, and western Carolinas.

Remember….bullseye this early is not a good thing…keep enjoying the trends, they aren’t done by a long shot!

 

[Rain Cold]

Go with the model that shows the least snow. Don't forget that rule just because it's 2026