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Pattern January Joke
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Almost every winter, we see perfect or near-perfect patterns showing up in the long range. We almost never end up with that perfect pattern in reality. We usually have to make do.
There are quite a number of ways to do that when you have key variables in your corner...even if they're not always perfectly located. We're in good shape.
There are quite a number of ways to do that when you have key variables in your corner...even if they're not always perfectly located. We're in good shape.
trackersacker
Member
I gotta say 21-22 keeps ringing bells in my mind too, especially if we go heavy -EPO but we lose -NAO. We got storms that January but East Coast went over to rain with one of them. Christmas was warm in 2021.
It was in my analog set for this winter. Not a perfect match but I feel it somewhat. This does look like it could go colder than January 22 tho.
First time in a while since I've seen the GEFS chart show a (future) neutral or maybe even a plus PNA:
We would also lose the NAO to neutral as well, but as said before I would take the PNA over the NAO any day.
We would also lose the NAO to neutral as well, but as said before I would take the PNA over the NAO any day.
Barf. That's one 12z model down the tube. Next up is the trad GFS.
LukeBarrette
im north of 90% of people on here so yeah
Meteorology Student
Member
2024 Supporter
2017-2023 Supporter
At least we got blocking over top, it doesn't know what to do with rest of crap lol
Lol yeh idk brother. Looks like the North Pole is right up the road. I’ll take it. Supports the unleash of cold air we all are thinking mid month.
WEATHERBOYROY
Member
I guess that's possible, but that's an odd look?
I mean, yeah...I'm more reacting to the fact that the best images continue to show up in the last couple of frames run after run. And even here, we're hoping that we can get a few tweaks at 360 to make things head in the right direction.
But, it's just a long range Op run. They waffle all the time. Hopefully the ENS will look good when they come out.
It's not that bad with a sprawling coast-to-coast Arctic high, and Miller B look. Needs work, of course, and kicks the can until the LP over the Arklatex goes by.
Well, there's this.
I was literally typing that post. I like where this is headed. Let’s see where it goes.
Yeh that’s very true.. that’s a good point
Just for fun, of course, but as the southern lobe of the Hudson Bay TPV swings around, the Siberian Express is loosed into the country. Hello, Texas.
NCWeatherNow
Member
Is it possible that the SE ridge hangs around and the cold goes towards the south central US?
Very possible. Initially likely.
NCWeatherNow
Member
Idk why, but this is kinda reminding me of 2021 February.
People were saying that the cold would come towards us and then it went to Texas.
packfan98
Moderator
The -NAO block seems to be hanging on longer and stronger from the 12z models I’ve seen so far. This mixed with the time of the year indicates to me that some of the modeled systems may verify south of where they are depicted at longer lead times.
I'd take my chances with this Siberian High moving into Montana.
Nice progression 
Perspective: We're out in Lala Land.
AI GFS Ensemble coming in
She's steady.
packfan98
Moderator
Yeah, I’ve tried to make an animation for it. The block stays anchored in place!
I am betting the GEFS follows its op & improves.
NCWeatherNow
Member
Is it me or the GEFS and GFS is less reliable than it used to
Even the ECMWF also
Even the ECMWF also
It just seems that way because we're all looking out past 7-10 days for something to keep hope alive. IMO, of course.
AIGFS doesn’t even get us below freezing through the first half of January 
That just be that please that is mid alantic snow lovers wet dream
Euro with a cross lava flow. 
Unbelievable lol. Is this the same timeframe the cold is supposed to drop?
foothillscrewzone
Member
It would be foolish to pretend that the lack of polar ice is not having an effect on cold air transport.
nsidc.org
Arctic sea ice sets a record low maximum in 2025 | National Snow and Ice Data Center
Arctic sea ice extent appears to have reached its annual maximum on March 22, 2025.
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??? Are you trolling?
IMS Ice Trend Graph
U.S. National Ice Center's Antarctic interactive trend graph that displays an annual trend line of ice extent in millions of square kilometers from 2009 to present.
usicecenter.gov
AJ1013
Member
62/35 and sunny here at 1pm after a low of 46F. Nice to finally participate in winter. Low-mid 40’s expected tonight
trackersacker
Member
That’s a likeable trend
