AlabamaWxWatcher
Member
Need that inevitable north trend
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Pattern January Joke
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Man, we would die for this look 9 out of 10 times but so many of us have the PTSD of the beach slammer from last year. I don't need 29 inches but just give me a nice 3-6+ inches and I will be just fine. I really hope the EPS looks better here in an hour or so.
For entertainment mainly: enjoy the modeled mixed bag; not posting sleet because there’s very little/Euro usually shy on sleet
Snow:
Freezing rain: just what’s in SE GA/SC as the other is from this weekend
GiantBear
Member
1043 High over Ohio and Kentucky is unlikely to verify so it would come north, all other things remaining equal (which they won’t)
You have to think ICE pack and just how cold it’s going to be on top of it over the next week is going to play a big factor on this one. It will find the path of least resistance one way or another and that path appears to be very far south next weekend
My early hunch is we are all going to be screaming mercy before this is all said and done
My early hunch is we are all going to be screaming mercy before this is all said and done
Really not that far apart. Honestly really good consistency.
GeorgiaGirl
Member
Yep, as of now, I would be more concerned about suppression than NW. The reason why is not just about this coming storm, but apparently the blocking is going to be high.
But it does appear as if the Euro vaguely hinted again here.
Storm signal is definitely there and this will be another one to watch. Can we finally not be too far south or north for just one storm? So frustrating to track lately.
We've been backing up troughs all winter long. Don't stop now, except, of course, the GFS
12Z runs: The Euro is a day later with its actual storm vs GFS/CMC. Euro has an earlier weak wave well offshore at same time as GFS/CMC storm that then gets combined with its main storm:
The Icon as was noted earlier at 180 has a precursor just a bit ESE of the same wave that GFS/CMC have and is well developed possibly heading for far SE suppression:
The UKMET has a precursor in a similar spot to the model consensus in the W Gulf at 168:
Keep in mind the neverending NW tendency is always lurking to do its thing, like it or not, due to models overdoing cold.
I would take a decade long break from model watching or following the weather if I get 36".
BKWRN29
Member
No you wouldn’t lol that’d just make you wanna do it that much more!
but seriously praying this is out “big” one 
Looks to me like the gefs and eps are both suppressed. We take that at this point but definitely still makes me nervous after going 0 for 2 the last two weekends but a long way to go and would be even more nervous to have overwhelming support. 
accu35
Member
Reason Euro has a 9/10 day storm is because it’s so suppressed before moving NW towards the east coast. Start off early as Friday in our westerns SW areas in TX before getting squashed. So if we can trend this north a little on the Euro then it would start as early as Thursday night or Friday back west gulf coast. Not long at all
I’ll be in California for work weds and thurs so if we need me to seed the system let me know
broken025
Member
What did EPS show?
accu35
Member
If you don’t mind just time it right and will be good
Maybe. I once caught a 38" redfish within 30 minutes of arriving to Jekyll Island. I never got the rod out the rest of the week so I might be content for a good bit.
chapelhillwx
Member
Make sure to check with BAM -- he needs to approve all cloud seeding trajectories
Iceagewhereartthou
Member
Ah come on, you can ask for more than 3-6; at least go for a double digit!
wow
Member
Drawing me in again... This is actually someone similar to our current storm with a wave dropping into the SW but with a PV building in over the Atlantic.. like 10 degrees further south than our current storm. If that's the case, then it ain't charging up the TN valley.
I can foresee the western lobe of the PV trend further west over time and bring this further north with a more amped low.. but not to the point of our current system if that PV remains in the area and doesnt trend east.
That would be a good trend for the Euro to come closer to the GFS scenario; with the western lobe drawing further west. Same trend as last Jan's storm and the current storm.
I can foresee the western lobe of the PV trend further west over time and bring this further north with a more amped low.. but not to the point of our current system if that PV remains in the area and doesnt trend east.
That would be a good trend for the Euro to come closer to the GFS scenario; with the western lobe drawing further west. Same trend as last Jan's storm and the current storm.
The EPS follows it's op to a T. You can see the footprint nose dive into Texas.. disappear then reappear off the East coast. 
Weathernext Ens is not terrible, but it essentially is keeping the trough access too sharp and east like the Euros as our storm moves into TX
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Euro AI
Just so we are on the same page. Amping bad, phasing bad, slowing down bad
Trend on Euro AI Ens snow
That's a hellova miller B
BKWRN29
Member
It’s on to something.. getting more hopeful. I wish I could give myself a break this weekend and not track anything then start back Monday and see where we are. Not happening tho. This storm has my full attention.
tractor girl
Member
I just want 6+ in of snow across Atlanta and Athens into Columbia SC.. we are so often pinched off
but i suppose everyone all over the SE can say that now and then.
Gotta rob peter to pay paul
but i suppose everyone all over the SE can say that now and then.
Gotta rob peter to pay paul