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Pattern January Discussion
- Thread starter Storm5
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I still don't think we torch for that long.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
As is typical following large-scale North Pacific blocking regimes, over the course of this week, the once prominent northeast Pacific/Alaskan block will pinch off, retrograde westward, and dissipate over far eastern Siberia, leaving a massive vortex in its wake over Alaska (+EPO) by this time next week. The concurrent extension of the Pacific jet is liable to flood North America with mild, Pacific air. Hence, the eastern US should become blowtorch warm by mid-January and this warmth may persist into late January... In order to re-invigorate the -ENSO/WQBO/low Solar favored poleward-displaced Aleutian ridge, and the -EPO/-WPO/+TNH SE Canada/Great Lakes anomalous PV gyre to return like we saw in 2013-14/2014-15 & in portions of December and this past week, we need to see the Pacific jet retract in the long range. Good luck trying to get that to happen by January 25th or perhaps before February for that matter. Eventually it's liable to return... (& there are some legitimate signs of a potential renewed anticyclonic wave breaking event beginning to fester in the north-central Pacific by week 2.5-3, but any subsequent & legitimate pattern change would have to wait at least a week or more after said ACWB event developed, (assuming that it actually amplified), hence there's likely no legitimate pattern reversal in sight)). Of course, it doesn't help matters either that the stratospheric polar vortex continues to stabilize and intensify (as would be expected in a WQBO/-ENSO event) and the WQBO/-ENSO (cool neutral-NINA) base state becomes increasingly unfavorable & mild in the eastern and especially southeastern US deeper into winter...
I definitely don't see any signs of a cooler pattern returning until the 25th-30th at the earliest... By then, the z500 configuration reverses completely over east Asia and would kickstart kickstart a renewed (& aforementioned) ACWB event in the northeastern Pacific that could have a legitimate chance to reverse the -GPHas (negative geopotential height anomalies) & associated vortex over Alaska, but a lot can and likely will change between now and then.
A reversal would certainly be favored over Alaska considering the -ENSO/WQBO/low solar background is usually most efficient at producing a poleward Aleutian/Alaskan ridge...
The agreement amongst the EPS and GEFS is pretty stellar for the 10-15, huge Alaskan vortex and concurrent southeastern Canada ridge leads to a blowtorch warm look over most of the US minus the west coast. Thereafter (~ last week of January), we could see the pattern begin to resort back to what we observed in late December as the trough off the west coast begins to break down and a ridge starts to go back up in the northeast Pacific...
I definitely don't see any signs of a cooler pattern returning until the 25th-30th at the earliest... By then, the z500 configuration reverses completely over east Asia and would kickstart kickstart a renewed (& aforementioned) ACWB event in the northeastern Pacific that could have a legitimate chance to reverse the -GPHas (negative geopotential height anomalies) & associated vortex over Alaska, but a lot can and likely will change between now and then.
A reversal would certainly be favored over Alaska considering the -ENSO/WQBO/low solar background is usually most efficient at producing a poleward Aleutian/Alaskan ridge...
The agreement amongst the EPS and GEFS is pretty stellar for the 10-15, huge Alaskan vortex and concurrent southeastern Canada ridge leads to a blowtorch warm look over most of the US minus the west coast. Thereafter (~ last week of January), we could see the pattern begin to resort back to what we observed in late December as the trough off the west coast begins to break down and a ridge starts to go back up in the northeast Pacific...
Not to mention, we will have a ridge at 500mb, but there is going to be a huge arctic moving across. I do think we go above normal but with high pressure to our nothing the cold will push south at the SFC. I think after the 15, it should be better. The MJO is forecasted by euro and gfs to go into 8/1/2. That's $$$$
I guess that means another AN month in ATL. That will be 12 months in a row.
JLL1973
Member
Storm5 said:
5 miles south south of ms, tn state line in northeast ms
ForsythSnow
Moderator
SoutheastRidge said:
I wouldn't be too sure. We don't know how the end of the month will be, though the near 70's won't help by the end of the week.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
I personally don't buy modeled MJO forecasts more than several days out esp in an instance like this since all the suites (especially the GEFS) falsely resolve the MJO as a faster-moving moist-CCKW because they can't properly simulate the stratiform and upper level diabatic heating anomalies (hence they move the MJO too quickly through the tropics). Even when an event is ongoing, most guidance has a bias to send the MJO into the COD (circle of death) too quickly. Due in part to its inferior physics, the GEFS MJO forecasts are among the most atrocious of all models, with a horrendous bias to incessantly send the MJO into the western hemisphere (phases 8-1) (still not entirely sure why, although I'll try to find out soon enough). I certainly get a kick out of watching long range forecasters (Joe Bastardi for ex) cheer every time this model shows a Western Hemisphere MJO pulse, because almost all the time it doesn't verify, except when its in complete agreement with the European or if there's already a formidable MJO pulse &/or CCKW in the Pacific... Until we rid ourselves of this ongoing, extremely prolonged, and exceptionally strong westerly QBO regime (which is liable to stick around well into 2018), see external help from the extratropical stratosphere, and/or get closer to the most favorable climatology in February and March, a decent MJO pulse is not favored atm...
Storm5
Member
great posts Eric . awesome information
I made it down to 10.3. If the winds hadn't of been so strong, I think most areas with snowfall would've been 0-5 with the DPs. But, still freaking cold! Made it to 28 this afternoon with some melting but almost every yard in the neighborhood still has ample snow. Lots of icy roads still going on as well. As of 1PM tomorrow, we will have been below freezing for 72 hours here, should it not get above 32 until after then. Forecast for tomorrow is 36, which I would imagine would happen between 2-4. Gonna be close to hit 72 hours!
Based on a day by day calculation of Atlanta (used as a proxy for the SE US) average temperature anomalies in January from 1975 though 2014, I came up with the following graph (ignore the 1978 reference in these graphs):
One can clearly see (assuming you like cold):
- Being inside the circle (COD) is better than being outside the circle for all phases.
- Being in the left side of the COD is where you want to be for the best shot at being cold.
- The COD portion of phase 8, which has the asterisk, has averaged the coldest and COD phase 7 has been 2nd coldest.
- COD for phases 6, 1, 2, and 3 have been pretty chilly.
- Outside in 7, 8, 1, and 2 actually averaged near normal, not colder than normal. If the MJO is going to be there, it is best to be barely outside.
- COD for phases 4 and 5 actually averaged near normal.
- The worst places to be by far were phases 4 and 5 outside the COD.
Based on this, I determined the following path to be about the ultimate path for best chances at extended SE US cold:
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One can clearly see (assuming you like cold):
- Being inside the circle (COD) is better than being outside the circle for all phases.
- Being in the left side of the COD is where you want to be for the best shot at being cold.
- The COD portion of phase 8, which has the asterisk, has averaged the coldest and COD phase 7 has been 2nd coldest.
- COD for phases 6, 1, 2, and 3 have been pretty chilly.
- Outside in 7, 8, 1, and 2 actually averaged near normal, not colder than normal. If the MJO is going to be there, it is best to be barely outside.
- COD for phases 4 and 5 actually averaged near normal.
- The worst places to be by far were phases 4 and 5 outside the COD.
Based on this, I determined the following path to be about the ultimate path for best chances at extended SE US cold:
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Just took a gander at the 4K NAM. It sure is wanting to keep us in the 30s across North GA tomorrow and tuesday... wonder how realistic that is?
I think February will/might be okay for us. You are right though, in the long range, it's not looking too good. It would have been awesome to have capitalized now though, with all that cold air in place. If we had gotten anything, it would have stayed on the ground for a few days.Shawn said:Just plain ugly for my back yard per 00z GFS. Nothing even close in fantasy land.. not even temps in the 30s.
I like this look. I don't like its on the 672 hour CFS lol
Bsudweather
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The NAM is picking up on some frozen precip for the northern upstate tomorrow morning. Could it be right? It did pretty well with the storm so we shall see
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GaWx said:
The low this morning at GSO was a very cold +6F, but that still was nowhere near the recent GFS progs in the insane -11 to -12 range meaning misses of 17F to 18F too cold! The miss the night before was 11F too cold.
At GSP, the low this morning was near +17F vs GFS progs of -1F. So, the miss this morning there was ~18F too cold! Yesterday morning's miss was 20 F too cold!
Moral of the story: Be very wary of a strong cold bias of GFS lows over substantial snowcover with good radiational cooling conditions being assumed. Expect it to be far too cold in many cases and you'd probably be right.
whatalife
Moderator
SD said:I like this look. I don't like its on the 672 hour CFS lol
LOL! Book it!
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GaWx said:
I honestly expected quite a few below 0 readings in NC this morning. It goes to show just how hard it really is to have negative readings in the south.
SD said:
Well for it's worth my personal station had -4 and the app on my phone which uses data from a weather station located at an elementary school in Roanoke Rapids had 0 but the official low out at the Halifax-Northampton Regional Airport was 5. Emporia, VA which is about 25 miles due north of me reported an official reading of -6..... so there was some 0 to neg numbers close by.
wow, if TWC is correct then after tonight, it won't even get below 40 degrees at night for at least 2 more weeks. Could tonight be the last freeze of the season ? I also find it interesting that TWC is going with near 70 in Dallas on Saturday and the NWS is going with 55. What's the deal with that ?
dsaur
Member
It makes the last few years impressive, getting down below 10 here. Wonder if I'll see it again this year? It got pretty cold the last few nights, so it's a good start. TGaWx said:
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Doubt it. We usually go from one extreme to another, as we just had extreme warmth to extreme cold to now extreme warmth again. It could be very well possible we go back down again later on sharply.SoutheastRidge said:
ForsythSnow said:
The one thing I've noticed is that it seems like extreme warmth has more staying power than extreme cold. It can easily be well above normal for 2 weeks straight but having more than 3 or 4 days of well below normal is pretty hard to come by.
accu35 said:
Well, it's actually the second week of January but I was kinda joking. I think we will see a few freezes in Feb. But unless the pattern changes in Feb, it looks like this may end up being another warm winter.
tennessee storm
Member
the TWC pretty much forecast off the euro model...SoutheastRidge said:
dsaur
Member
This has been a year for abrupt turn arounds. 70 plus days without a drop here, then more than 13 inches in the next month and a half down here. I wouldn't expect this heat to be locked in, and warm weather sets up cold and snow, more often than not in the south. It was in the 60's here and two days later it was 33 and rain, lol. It's the south, it's always gets some warmer than we want it in winter, but it still gets real cold in spells. T
ForsythSnow
Moderator
tennessee storm said:
I think it varies sometimes. I have seen them change their forecast based off of one or so GFS runs. However, I think they use a blend of them.
dsaur said:
Honestly i'm kinda glad it doesn't stay cold all winter. I am looking forward to the 60s this week !
whatalife
Moderator
Shawn said:
It's working well for me.
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olhausen
Member
JLL1973 said:ForsythSnow said:Storm5 said:no one wants to talk about late next weekend for areas to our west.
ice storm city
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I was going to upload an image of the ice they are showing, then saw the site was back up, then forgot. Here it is.
Worst spot is 1.8" of ice. Imagine if that played out as even half.
What is more impressive are the temps and the high behind that. The 18Z GFS has a 1053 high in the Midwest, with -30 temps.
one inch of ice. na i think ill pass on that
SoutheastRidge said:
Everything seems to be running good. The only thing I noticed is I can't quote peoples post by using the quote button. The reply button works for quotes but it seems I end up quoting more then just the post I'm trying to quote. This only happens when I'm not using the site through Tapatalk.Shawn said:
Yeah, on browser when you click quote, it "saves it" and you have to click the "Quote these posts now" link under the box on the quick reply form to load them into it. It's not the best format, but it works. I used to have it disabled, but seems people wanted it.
Anyways, good to hear the Host Gator page is a thing of the past, and people can see posts come up immediately. During the domain name server change, things were a bit chaotic for a day or two.
Anyways, good to hear the Host Gator page is a thing of the past, and people can see posts come up immediately. During the domain name server change, things were a bit chaotic for a day or two.
ATLwxfan
Member
SoutheastRidge said:
Last freeze of the season? Come on man.
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ATLwxfan said:
Well the last freeze in ATL a few years ago was in early February so you never know.
ATLwxfan
Member
SoutheastRidge said:
Only 6 times since 1878 has the last freeze been before March 1. Exactly 0 times has that been in January. It would be unprecedented.
http://www.weather.gov/images/ffc/last_spring_freeze.png
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ATLwxfan said:
We are kinda living in unprecedented times in terms of weather so honestly nothing would surprise me. Also it looks like that map only goes to 2010 ?
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