olhausen
Member
Down to 10 degrees here already which I believe was the forecasted low. I had ice forming on my eyelashes today when I took the dog on a walk.
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Pattern January Discussion
- Thread starter Storm5
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Stormlover
Member
From Snowbird Bob, a facebook guy with a following. Comments?
JLL1973
Member
Stormlover said:From Snowbird Bob, a facebook guy with a following. Comments?
In my opinion winter weather should stay well northwest of the midsouth
whatalife
Moderator
JLL1973 said:Stormlover said:From Snowbird Bob, a facebook guy with a following. Comments?
In my opinion winter weather should stay well northwest of the midsouth
I would agree and verbatim from the models that is an ugly ice storm if it were to happen.
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Stormlover
Member
JLL1973 said:Stormlover said:From Snowbird Bob, a facebook guy with a following. Comments?
In my opinion winter weather should stay well northwest of the midsouth
Based on what? Mem;phis and that area of the midsouth looks to get hammered big time.
JLL1973
Member
Stormlover said:JLL1973 said:Stormlover said:From Snowbird Bob, a facebook guy with a following. Comments?
In my opinion winter weather should stay well northwest of the midsouth
Based on what? Mem;phis and that area of the midsouth looks to get hammered big time.
Based on the ole northwest trend. 00z GFS already has it already trending northwest
Stormlover
Member
That's one run...it may sink farther southeast than the 18Z ...though I think Snowbird Bob may be a little too far with itJLL1973 said:
JLL1973
Member
Stormlover said:
You never know. Just have to keep an eye on it. 18z definitely got my attention
VegasEagle
Member
Yep, that one is definitely an attention getter. Looks like it will keep this board busy.JLL1973 said:
olhausen
Member
JLL1973 said:ForsythSnow said:Storm5 said:no one wants to talk about late next weekend for areas to our west.
ice storm city
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I was going to upload an image of the ice they are showing, then saw the site was back up, then forgot. Here it is.
Worst spot is 1.8" of ice. Imagine if that played out as even half.
What is more impressive are the temps and the high behind that. The 18Z GFS has a 1053 high in the Midwest, with -30 temps.
one inch of ice. na i think ill pass on that
VegasEagle said:
The euro also takes it well north of here but it's still showing a big ice storm for someone.
Hot off the press from Larry Cosgrove tonight:
"From looking at the computer model and analog forecasts, it seems pretty certain that something approximating the 'January Thaw' will be affecting most of the nation between January 13 and 22. But the question many forecasters have on their minds is, 'Is winter over'?"
"But a potentially new rub shows up in the weekly forecasts of the CFS and ECMWF platforms: strong -EPO/+PNA ridging from Alaska to California. The analog depiction seems a little fast with this development (January 22), but I am confident that a warm/dry West vs. cold/stormy Central East configuration is likely to occur shortly thereafter, and quite possibly last through February and the first half of March. The 1996 comparison has some value here, albeit with a colder outcome like 2014 or 2015. If dual blocking signatures emerge again along the entire Pacific shoreline and Greenland, the most recent Arctic intrusion will seem like just 'part of the pattern' of the winter of 2016-2017. With some more eastern U.S. snow and ice events thrown into the mix, just for fun."
"From looking at the computer model and analog forecasts, it seems pretty certain that something approximating the 'January Thaw' will be affecting most of the nation between January 13 and 22. But the question many forecasters have on their minds is, 'Is winter over'?"
"But a potentially new rub shows up in the weekly forecasts of the CFS and ECMWF platforms: strong -EPO/+PNA ridging from Alaska to California. The analog depiction seems a little fast with this development (January 22), but I am confident that a warm/dry West vs. cold/stormy Central East configuration is likely to occur shortly thereafter, and quite possibly last through February and the first half of March. The 1996 comparison has some value here, albeit with a colder outcome like 2014 or 2015. If dual blocking signatures emerge again along the entire Pacific shoreline and Greenland, the most recent Arctic intrusion will seem like just 'part of the pattern' of the winter of 2016-2017. With some more eastern U.S. snow and ice events thrown into the mix, just for fun."
JLL1973
Member
9 degrees here this morning. That's just too cold
Storm5
Member
active period ahead in the 7 -12 day period . a massive high pressing down from the north will set the stage for a huge prolonged overrunning winter storm for texas,oklahome, Arkansas and even Louisiana . for the rest of the southeast heavy rain will rule the weekend .
just after that in the 16th-18th period we will need to watch a closed low that will be swinging through the region. how much cold air is left will be the question . but it could be fun for someone especially NW parts of the region.
and not to get too far ahead but , really liking the signs as we roll from the last week of January into the first couple of weeks of February. Looks we will head into a pattern that we have yet to see this winter with a western ridge. So it looks like we should have a window of a few weeks before we torch into March
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just after that in the 16th-18th period we will need to watch a closed low that will be swinging through the region. how much cold air is left will be the question . but it could be fun for someone especially NW parts of the region.
and not to get too far ahead but , really liking the signs as we roll from the last week of January into the first couple of weeks of February. Looks we will head into a pattern that we have yet to see this winter with a western ridge. So it looks like we should have a window of a few weeks before we torch into March
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One interesting thing to me is the continuation of the models in the medium and long term to show warmth that hasn't materialized. We warm up this week for sure but beyond that it could get interesting again. Just two days ago several were saying hopefully we have something to track in February. It appears that February may come early for several in the region. Regardless, fun times continue ahead.
It is pretty rare for Birmingham to get pressures as high as 30.80" but they, indeed, got that at 9AM this morning! That's 1043 mb! Tuscaloosa had 30.82" (1044 mb)!
1042 mb (30.76-77") made it all of the way into GA at Rome, Cartersville, and Dalton.
The GFS is suggesting that 1044 mb will make it to near the Charlotte/Greensboro area tomorrow morning! Let's see if that verifies.
1042 mb (30.76-77") made it all of the way into GA at Rome, Cartersville, and Dalton.
The GFS is suggesting that 1044 mb will make it to near the Charlotte/Greensboro area tomorrow morning! Let's see if that verifies.
whatalife
Moderator
Storm5 said:
Very well put. I feel for those in Texas, Oklahoma, Arkansas, and surrounding areas. Could be a significant icing situation. Pattern does look interesting from about the 20th on.
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I love the longer range is showing lowering heights across the Bahamas and into the GOM. That should really setup a fun storm track over the south.
The GFS is showing its cold bias with near ideal radiational cooling conditions over deep snowcover, when it often overdoes the lows. For example, even today's 12Z GFS had a low of 2F at Greensboro, NC, this morning even though the low was only down to 9F. They have them getting down to a ridiculously cold -12F tonight!!! The RDU NWS office is wisely ignoring that nonsense and has them getting down to near 0F (still frigid and record cold though).
I think it is always important to recognize model biases and this is the best way to learn them, keeping track of verifications.
I think it is always important to recognize model biases and this is the best way to learn them, keeping track of verifications.
To add to the above, here's an even worse case if you can believe it. Today's 0Z and 6Z GFS runs had KGSP (Greer, SC) down to the -3 to -4F range over its snowcover. It only got down to around 17F!! The last 3 runs have a low of -1F for tonight and that's even with partial high cloudcover! GSP is not at all buying that and is predicting around 13F.
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Wow, Friday is going to be a blowtorch. Highs in the upper 60s. Some may hit 70. What a wild swing in temperatures.
Is it normal for temps to be well above forecast when there's snowcover on the ground ? I was forecast to be 10 this morning and I was 15 ! And that's with clear skies.
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Wow at that those highs in the Midwest/GL areas and near New England.
So when is our next snow/ice threat in GA and AL ?
ForsythSnow
Moderator
SoutheastRidge said:
Looking at the GFS trends with this upcoming weekend's ice storm to our north, it moves south a bit each run. Not sure if it is anything, but the GFS likes to play CAD events and their temperatures, and it shows light precipitation in with a weakening high of around 1041 on the Canadian border of New York. Might be nothing, but could become a worry later if things trend towards it.
That is just how I see it, not sure how everyone else does.
Not sure. 588dm ridge. Even dew points are quite warm. It'd be hard even with that high parked there to get anywhere cold enough into the deeper South. Maybe parts of Northern NC and Virginia.
ForsythSnow
Moderator
GaWx said:
Thanks, I wasn't seeing that ridge, but does that affect the surface, since CAD is usually a surface feature, and that is a 500mb feature, or does that overall keep the high pressure effects north?
GeorgiaGirl
Member
I'll be fine with a break from cold weather by after Monday. Somehow I feel there will be another chance (at least one) but for now I'm good with a break.
The pattern may actually need to change though (instead of being progressive).
The pattern may actually need to change though (instead of being progressive).
Storm5
Member
Yeah looks like we can all sleep for a few weeks. I have hope late January into the first few weeks of February will be a window before spring arrivesGaWx said:
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I'm good for the winter. Now I'm ready for spring.
ForsythSnow said:
Just warm air filtering in. The lowest dew-point during the maximum CAD signature I could find per 18z GFS was 47F in Georgia. Temperatures even approach 70's in some locations. You can see CAD is having an effect on areas, it's just much too warm to begin with.
YW. Yes, that makes it very tough to get low level cold air down that far south. There's nowhere close to the low level cold needed for anything even close to a threat for the bulk of the SE US. Maybe by sometime after 1/20 there will be another threat although no model can see anything that far with reliability just yet. We may have to wait til February as bad as the 500 mb pattern looks. But sometimes things will change on a dime. The storm we just had and the current cold weren't on the day 15-16 GFS runs for the most part.ForsythSnow said:
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Okay, thanks. maybe we can reload in a couple of weeks, but who knows what can happen. Things can definitely change quickly in the medium to long range.GaWx said:
I'm in on itGaWx said:
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JLL1973
Member
accu35 said:
Looks like to me it's trended well northwest. Last night I was in the ice zone now it's in northwest arkansas
Storm5
Member
where are you locatedJLL1973 said:
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