Pattern January Discussion

[ForsythSnow]

that's a sexy split flow on the 12z euro
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12z euro also has a nice severe weather event late next weekend...

Gotta get the storms to get the snow later!

Nothing beats watching a line of severe thunderstorms moving at you, or a cluster of supercells! 

 

[GaWx]

Good news for cold wanters (most of the posters): the 12 EPS not only held serve on the cold for the 11-15 but is actually even colder than the 0Z EPS! To give an idea of how cold, the mean has 850's as cold as -5C to -8C for the peak of the cold in the Birmingham, ATL-AHN-GSP-Charlotte-RDU corridor and 0C all of the way to the Gulf coast-Jacksonville, FL. It isn't often that an ensemble mean (50 members!) way out during the 11-15 day period has 850's that peak that cold.
To compare, the 0Z EPS peak cold was about 2C warmer at 850.

 

[SnowHusky]

Wow...12z Euro has as a 984mb low over extreme western TN at 168. There will definitely be severe wx this weekend for some.

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[Storm5]

Good news for cold wanters (most of the posters): the 12 EPS not only held serve on the cold for the 11-15 but is actually even colder than the 0Z EPS! To give an idea of how cold, the mean has 850's as cold as -5C to -8C for the peak of the cold in the Birmingham, ATL-AHN-GSP-Charlotte-RDU corridor and 0C all of the way to the Gulf coast-Jacksonville, FL. It isn't often that an ensemble mean (50 members!) way out during the 11-15 day period has 850's that peak that cold.
To compare, the 0Z EPS peak cold was about 2C warmer at 850.

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[whatalife]

Good news for cold wanters (most of the posters): the 12 EPS not only held serve on the cold for the 11-15 but is actually even colder than the 0Z EPS! To give an idea of how cold, the mean has 850's as cold as -5C to -8C for the peak of the cold in the Birmingham, ATL-AHN-GSP-Charlotte-RDU corridor and 0C all of the way to the Gulf coast-Jacksonville, FL. It isn't often that an ensemble mean (50 members!) way out during the 11-15 day period has 850's that peak that cold.
To compare, the 0Z EPS peak cold was about 2C warmer at 850.

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HAHA! I almost texted you this pic. WOW at the cold.


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[whatalife]

Nice EPS...

 

[Storm5]

CAPE values Sun. 1am

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I'm gonna move this into the severe thread

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[WilkesboroDude]

Safe to punt until February 18th seems like a safe bet. We have several weeks to kill with periods of strong storms and cool downs before we see a brief window for another wintry event outside of the mtns.

 

[Storm5]

Safe to punt until February 18th seems like a safe bet. We have several weeks to kill with periods of strong storms and cool downs before we see a brief window for another wintry event outside of the mtns.

saying a 4-5 week period is "safe" to punt is absolutely crazy . The end of the torch is right around corner . No window of opportunity is guaranteed. but normal to below temps will be here long before the 18th

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[Storm5]

Safe to punt until February 18th seems like a safe bet. We have several weeks to kill with periods of strong storms and cool downs before we see a brief window for another wintry event outside of the mtns.

saying a 4-5 week period is "safe" to punt is absolutely crazy . The end of the torch is right around corner . No window of opportunity is guaranteed. but normal to below temps will be here long before the 18th . Hell at this point I'll be happy with cold temps after this torch

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[Storm5]

Safe to punt until February 18th seems like a safe bet. We have several weeks to kill with periods of strong storms and cool downs before we see a brief window for another wintry event outside of the mtns.

saying a 4-5 week period is "safe" to punt is absolutely crazy . The end of the torch is right around corner . No window of opportunity is guaranteed. but normal to below temps will be here long before the 18th . Hell at this point I'll be happy with cold temps after this torch

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[Storm5]

Safe to punt until February 18th seems like a safe bet. We have several weeks to kill with periods of strong storms and cool downs before we see a brief window for another wintry event outside of the mtns.

saying a 4-5 week period is "safe" to punt is absolutely crazy . The end of the torch is right around corner . No window of opportunity is guaranteed. but normal to below temps will be here long before the 18th . Hell at this point I'll be happy with cold temps after this torch

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[Storm5]

Safe to punt until February 18th seems like a safe bet. We have several weeks to kill with periods of strong storms and cool downs before we see a brief window for another wintry event outside of the mtns.

saying a 4-5 week period is "safe" to punt is absolutely crazy . The end of the torch is right around corner . No window of opportunity is guaranteed. but normal to below temps will be here long before the 18th . Hell at this point I'll be happy with cold temps after this torch

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[ForsythSnow]

Now that's a quadruple post lol.

 

[SD]

Given the eps cools us back to normal around the 24th and below normal by the 27th I probably won't punt

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[SD]

Given the eps cools us back to normal around the 24th and below normal by the 27th I probably won't punt

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[SD]

Given the eps cools us back to normal around the 24th and below normal by the 27th I probably won't punt

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[Storm5]

Now that's a quadruple post lol.

lol sometimes you have to get your opinion across and if it means multuple posts so be it haha

 

[GaWx]

Please continue posting January thoughts in this thread:

http://southernwx.com/community/showthread.php?tid=296

 

[kmanwx]

test