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Pattern January Discussion

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SoutheastRidge said:
ATLwxfan said:
This pattern's persistence is nothing short of impressive.


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Persistent warm patterns seem to be the norm nowadays. It's pesistent cold patterns that shock me .
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Well thankfully we live in an area where it's normal to be warmer than other areas of the country during the Winter.  I would rather be able to get my rare flowers started outside earlier rather than later.  Thankfully I put them in pots that are easy to move before the cold moves back in soon.  It's absolutely awesome I am able to get them a good natural start outdoors versus fake inside methods!
 
00z gefs just woke and caved to the geps and eps . Trough east ridge west

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Still not great, but for an ensemble mean, I will take it. There looks to be a chance at some fun & games a bit before this imagery. Will it work out? who knows, but all of the SE is in play.


 
Storm5 said:
00z gefs just woke and caved to the geps and eps . Trough east ridge west

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It was only a matter of time.


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ForsythSnow said:
Teleconnections for the AO, NAO, and PNA look horrible today for the long range.
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A lot of people got snow and ice a week or so ago, with horrible teleconnections , and with ALL the ensembles showing ridge west and trough east, I'll take my chances
 
Tarheel1 said:
ForsythSnow said:
Teleconnections for the AO, NAO, and PNA look horrible today for the long range.
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A lot of people got snow and ice a week or so ago, with horrible teleconnections , and with ALL the ensembles showing ridge west and trough east, I'll take my chances
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agreed

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Teleconnections are a joke. We had great teleconnections all winter last year which didn't amount to a whole lot at least here in Atlanta.

I am exaggerating obviously but you get what I mean.


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ATLwxfan said:
Teleconnections are a joke. We had great teleconnections all winter last year which didn't amount to a whole lot at least here in Atlanta.

I am exaggerating obviously but you get what I mean.


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Good point, but aren't the teleconnections the model output of what the pattern looks like?
 
I'm surprised that there has been no mention from anyone about how cold the 11-15 day period is in the SE US on the 0Z EPS. Coldest yet for late January.
 
GaWx said:
I'm surprised that there has been no mention from anyone about how cold the 11-15 day period is in the SE US on the 0Z EPS. Coldest yet for late January.
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Because it's the 11-15 day EPS!?
Larry, you think the cold and snowy early Feb has legs, in your opinion ??
 
The teleconnections are rarely perfect...I've seen snow without the teleconnections being in their perfect positions for the south to get favorable snowfall. About a week ago, I mentioned that the cold will come in waves. The warmth in between won't last as long like what we're seeing now.

But, we shall see as we get closer to the end of this week and into next week.

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GaWx said:
I'm surprised that there has been no mention from anyone about how cold the 11-15 day period is in the SE US on the 0Z EPS. Coldest yet for late January.
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Everyone is afraid that it will be gone on the next run. Models don't handle pattern changes very well and everyone is waiting to see if it has legs at this point. We all like the way we seem to be heading and after seeing the 6z run of the GFS, I think it has more support.
 
I'm really liking the change coming soon, beats what we having now, which to some ppl they like but to me, I absolutely hate 80 degree weather in January. So ready for some changes before spring/summer hite
 
Tarheel1 said:
GaWx said:
I'm surprised that there has been no mention from anyone about how cold the 11-15 day period is in the SE US on the 0Z EPS. Coldest yet for late January.
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Because it's the 11-15 day EPS!?
Larry, you think the cold and snowy early Feb has legs, in your opinion ??
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Mack,
 I'll let you know in 10 days or so. ;) 
 
 More seriously, I haven't the faintest idea right now. I wouldn't touch the snowy part of your question with a 1 million foot poll. However, I will reiterate that the 2nd week in Feb has had the most DEEP south major snows of any one week in recorded history. The subsequent weeks have also had decent activity. That's not a prediction one will occur then obviously or even that there is a good chance. For one thing, we're not in El Niño, which is the most favorable ENSO for SE US snow. OTOH, we're not in La Niña, which would mean the lowest chance. But one point taken from this is that IF there is going to be a deep southern significant snow in Feb., I wouldn't expect it during the first week.

 Regarding just the cold, itself, obviously there's a better chance for at least a short period and the EPS is the best predictor. So, I think at least a short lived change is a coming. However, neither the AO nor the NAO is currently predicted to go negative. Also, the MJO is projected to go back into the right side of the circle then, which isn't itself a cold signal. Hopefully, it doesn't go outside into phases 4 and 5, which is the warmest place to be on average. But the EPS needs to be respected at least as far as some period of cold quite possibly coming late January. From there, we'll see.
 
NorthGAWinterWx said:
The teleconnections are rarely  perfect...I've seen snow without the teleconnections being in their perfect positions for the south to get favorable snowfall. About a week ago, I mentioned that the cold will come in waves. The warmth in between won't last as long like what we're seeing now.

But, we shall see as we get closer to the end of this week and into next week.

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 Indeed. I have often posted about a good number of major SE snows happening with neither -NAO nor -AO. Example: this last storm!
 
tennessee storm said:
Storm5 said:
that's a sexy split flow on the 12z euro
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12z euro also has a nice severe weather event late next weekend... :)
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Gotta get the storms to get the snow later!
 
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