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Wintry January 8-9, 2018 Ice threat

Bsud said:
What's causing that HP to move out so fast. That to me just seems off, I'm not so sure it gets out of here that quick

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I think we will have lost our blocking by this point
 
Bsud said:
What's causing that HP to move out so fast. That to me just seems off, I'm not so sure it gets out of here that quick

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Oh, I've seen this play out a millions times in the past... although if it did indeed slow down in its retreat, I'd think east Tn and the Southern apps might see a bit more wintry mischief than is currently advertised.
 
We also have a decent snow pack now to help lock in CAD.


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ha, yeah, time for that damned snowpack to work for us regular snow slobs in the mid-south regions... lol
 
from my local NWS forecast:

"Sunday Night
Rain before 1am, then rain and snow between 1am and 2am, then rain after 2am. Low around 34. Chance of precipitation is 80%."

Apparently Mrx is thinking there is a 1 hour window where we might get snow, but then it's all rain after that. :)
 
MSnowAtl said:
Any EURO news?
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Euro definitely has a deeper Eastern US trough at the end of the run, colder.. as far as this particular storm, I'll await people with better map reading skills and access to premium sites.
 
best I can tell, Euro does throw my area with around an inch of snow on the front end of this storm.. I'm sure it all turns to rain though. Smokies get a nice half foot dump.
 
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Cold is retreating faster than precip coming in... ATL doesn't have any ice/snow on this Euro run. Like I said, my map reading skills suck though.
 
whamby said:
Cold is retreating faster than precip coming in... ATL doesn't have any ice/snow on this Euro run. Like I said, my map reading skills suck though.
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Read on another board that is still icy for north GA
 
Yeah I did too... hard to read free Euro maps on weather.us.. :) Think the mountains in N.Ga definitely looking at an ice threat... we shall see.
 
Euro has a teeny tiny mix/zr and goes to rain quickly. Not much to it, tbh. The high is well otw out by the time things can get going.
 
Here is the Euro ZR from the event:

okay.png
 
Majority of the 00z GEFS members match the idea of a front end < 0.25 inch event for most; then over to rain.

This isn't going to be a big deal, from current modeling, imo.

The Canadian, I am sure is the most bullsih on it's ensembles, I'll have to take a look and report back as meteocentre still does not have the ptypes out.
 
MRX just out with their latest AFD.. a little more bullish from them on wintry precip..

"Sunday Night
A chance of rain, snow, and sleet before midnight, then rain and snow likely between midnight and 4am, then rain likely after 4am. Cloudy, with a low around 34. Chance of precipitation is 70%."

Interesting. I've seen similar set ups give up very little sleet, then all to rain, or situations where the cold lingers longer in our valleys, and we get some snow before finally switching over to rain. Remember something similar back in Feb 2015, where we were cold for about a week, then one of these snow/sleet to rain storms came and we had a good inch of snow/sleet before warming slowly to all rain. Incidentally a week or so later, we got a big snowstorm to end Fab Feb.
 
As dry and cold as this air is, I see no issue getting ice accretion for a bit. I’ve seen this dance many times. This one will be interesting to watch as well because let’s be honest...most storms we’ve had this winter have been oddly strange. Lol.


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MBell said:
As dry and cold as this air is, I see no issue getting ice accretion for a bit. I’ve seen this dance many times. This one will be interesting to watch as well because let’s be honest...most storms we’ve had this winter have been oddly strange. Lol.


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Agree ! Get the precip here before daybreak, will be bad for a few hours anyway! Local news just showed sim radar, and has precip getting to N Ga and extreme western Carolinas by around 4 AM. Arrival a few hours earlier, could be a bigger deal!
 
FFC:
.LONG TERM /Friday Night through Wednesday/...

High pressure and strong cold air advection will remain
in place over the area to begin the extended period. As a result,
cold conditions are expected through Sunday morning, particularly on
Friday night into Saturday morning, where low temperatures in the
10s in north GA and 20s elsewhere in central and south GA are
anticipated. Northwesterly winds between 10 and 15 mph will
contribute to low wind chills throughout our area at this time, with
values in the teens throughout most of the area, and even dropping
into the single digits and negatives in the far northeast corner of
the area. High temperatures will also be well below normal on
Saturday.

In the later part of the weekend, the high pressure center will move
eastward offshore and a frontal system will begin to move into the
mid Mississippi Valley. Surface winds will gain a southeasterly
component which will lead to a gradual increase in temperature and
moisture in the area on Sunday and into early next week. GFS and
ECMWF models are in good agreement regarding the timing of this
frontal feature, bringing PoPs in late Sunday night and until
early Tuesday morning when the moves eastward out of the area.
With this continuing increased confidence, have increased to
categorical PoPs during the daytime on Monday. By Sunday night, a
wedge will have formed across the northeast portions of the
forecast area. Cold temperatures at the surface within the wedge
combined with warmer temperatures aloft will create the potential
for freezing rain and sleet. Wintry precipitation total will be
highly dependent on the position and strength of the wedge, so
forecast will be subject to change over the next few days.
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GSP discussion says : could be interesting 8-12 hours on Monday. Expect precip to start as snow, go to freezing rain, then plain rain by midday! Say forecast subject to change!
 
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gfs_T850_us_15.png
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So comparing 06z runs and 00z runs to last night right away on the 06z runs the NAM is further east with energy then it's counter-parties and while it has same low in Canadian that 00z GFS had last night it was a tick further NW the GFS, based on this look we would have a earlier onset in GA/Carolina's and better position of H to assist in the CAD event
 
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Just something to note. Models are placing that HP just off the coast of NC in the Atlantic at the onset of precip Sunday night. I'm curious to see what happens when that cold air is filtered in over solid snowpack. One would think that would only serve to strengthen the wedge
 
weatherfide said:
12 z NAM looks ominous at 72 hours. Dewpoints in single digits over the SE. Negative single digits.
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How's the precip and timing? Heavy and early morning, late night?
 
Tarheel1 said:
How's the precip and timing? Heavy and early morning, late night?
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Early AM hours Monday for start of event in GA and GFS/CMC seem to be if I'm splitting difference between .1 and .25 roughly... heavier as day goes on but then question is rain or Fz rain depends on CAD most models show changeover to rain as heaviest comes thru
 
weatherfide said:
Waiting on twisterdata for more maps, but it looks like timing would be around 7 am to 12 pm monday...it's beyond nams range. Take all this with huge grains of salt.
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NAM is out of range but right before event the dew points are ridiculous and it's usally pretty good on CAD/thermo. That's some cold/dry air and a new snow pack which we've seen Globals struggle with CAD events definitely bares some nail-baiting
 
Slightly colder 2m temps 30 degrees and further east on 12z GFS run which I could easily see being 2-3 degrees to warm knowing how models struggle on CAD temps
 
Great storm track on the GFS. Unfortunate that we couldn’t get a storm track like that while we had our arctic air mass in place.
 
GFS slight uptick in Fz rain amounts, CMC is very bad looking so far for SE and it's usually better Global model with CAD
 
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