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Wintry January 8-9, 2018 Ice threat

Shawn said:
The idea is that, if precip can get in quick enough before the wedge departs (and its booking it), that some insitu wedge can get established for CAD zones. If you're outside optimal CAD zones, it won't last as long; but if you take a look at the Canadian that handles ZR better, it's very scary. I am waiting until 00z & 12z tomorrow before I start to take the Canadian seriously.
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Yea looking at the 18Z ICON it had a nice CAD in place but took the precip awhile to get into the CAD areas before it departed...Definitly needs to be closely monitored though especially with what the GGEM had at 12Z.
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Shawn said:
I'd say at least as ominous, if not more so; even South of ATL on some members:

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Wedge sig is stronger, maybe why it's squashed this run on op
 
Lots of members showing it already but we all know how our last event panned it with several members on board 5 days out
 
Of course it's gonna be an ice storm on Monday! It's gonna be 60 on Tuesday! SMDH! Can't get a good storm and cold to follow, like RAH or CHS! :(
 
This could very well be a big Ice storm for us here in the upstate. Things look like it could trend right toward a perfect CAD setup for these areas. That a lot of Qpf and if that overuns the CAD we are in trouble.

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ForsythSnow said:
Maybe at the onset, but after an hour or two it's all ZR or rain. That's about the best that can be done. As usual, the 850MB layer evacuates the area rapidly and we are left with a low level cold.
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A few GEFS members keeping flirting with a more sleet/ snow mix bad type event
 
Storm5 said:
Oh hell, already???
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We don't really want an ice storm, so why not start a thread? In all seriousness, we have good support from all 3 major global models and the GEFS for an ice storm in the CAD regions, so there is some signal. Really hope it busts and becomes rain or better than ZR.
 
ForsythSnow said:
We don't really want an ice storm, so why not start a thread? In all seriousness, we have good support from all 3 major global models and the GEFS for an ice storm in the CAD regions, so there is some signal. Really hope it busts and becomes rain or better than ZR.
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Yeah there is definitely a big signal for an ice storm. Me and Forsyth have been sniffing it out
 
Mercedes-Benz Stadium officials will really be sweating possible winter weather. The Georgia High School football championships were cancelled there with the early December storm at the strong encouragement of stadium officials. Apparently the roof design is dangerous for snow/ice falling off. Reportedly, a car was damaged by falling snow/ice during high school championships. Winter weather will be the LAST thing wanted by officials.
 
k0skinne said:
Mercedes-Benz Stadium officials will really be sweating possible winter weather. The Georgia High School football championships were cancelled there with the early December storm at the strong encouragement of stadium officials. Apparently the roof design is dangerous for snow/ice falling off. Reportedly, a car was damaged by falling snow/ice during high school championships. Winter weather will be the LAST thing wanted by officials.
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Thank for the info
 
Majority of operational modeling has the High pulling away before the precipitation can really get started. It's a timing thing, and ensembles will be very important in regards to this event.
 
By hour 60 GFS, our vorticity looks way different versus the 18z forecast. This one's gonna take a few days to figure out.
 
Sub freezing temps with moisture moving in within th CAD areas. Not looking good.

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GFS closes our wave off again, but 500mb is much different.
 
GFS trying to make a strong system that will likely run inland; not quite sure. But mix/ZR breaking out in GA. High has pulled away, for the most part.
 
Operational GFS, not a huge ZR fest, some early stuff in GA & NC before turning to rain quickly. It could still be substantial, talking about ZR, but not some chaotic looking thing the 12z Canadian had.
 
Shawn said:
Operational GFS, not a huge ZR fest, some early stuff in GA & NC before turning to rain quickly. It could still be substantial, talking about ZR, but not some chaotic looking thing the 12z Canadian had.
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Canadian has not budged for quite a few runs now. And this run looks like it may show a hit again

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H5, Canadian and GFS are so far apart; not even worth trying to figure out right now; Lol.
 
In fact, Canadian at H5 is ridiculously different versus 12z. Whew! This one is going to be annoying.
 
CMC has bulk of precip delayed compared to 12z. Still shows a CAD situation with ice at the start but high retreating pretty quickly. Maybe a chance for In Situ CAD but prob not going to get it done IMO which is ok because ice with no snow is just a crap situation
 
I would like to note that you can view the Canadian ensembles here (they are SLOW AS ALL GET OUT!): http://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-prediction/
They didn't look bad for a chance; there were some big ones on the previous run (12z).

The GEFS ensembles, of course are on the college of dupage site here: http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/
Or currently they can be viewed here (will go pay eventually): http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/
The 12z GEFS gave some credit to at least a beginning with some mix/ZR.

If you start comparing the ensemble runs against each other, you should get a good idea within the next couple of days. The 00z Canadian and GFS operational runs were both different from each other, radically, and also different from their previous runs (radically).
 
Shawn said:
In fact, Canadian at H5 is ridiculously different versus 12z. Whew! This one is going to be annoying.
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00z GFS an Canadian both similar with trailing wave dropping down out of Canada over the lakes
 
What's causing that HP to move out so fast. That to me just seems off, I'm not so sure it gets out of here that quick

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