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Wintry January 8-9, 2018 Ice threat

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Still could cause problems
 
accu35 said:
Theres still going to be onset ice for some areas. That alone needs this thrrad to be open. This thread was not created for a big storm but for icing issues to warn ppl about.
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If things don't speed up soon, there will be no threat! Some models have it starting around noon in ATL
 
Every member of gefs has on set of ZR in some parts of cad region. A few bring it in by 6z Monday morning.
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I believe this will be a minor threat - if at all - at any rate, who wants ice accretion?
KGSP is forecasting a 6 hour window of sleet/ZR early AM Monday for the city of Greenville, SC
Upstate SC ALWAYS receives 2-3 winter events per year (unlike places like Birmingham/Columbia where they may go years between events - I don't expect another winter event for the Birmingham metro for 3 years LOL; but models indicate AL/TN may get snow next week!)
 
Y'all this threat is far from over. The global models never do well with this type of setup. Watch the mesoscale models. At least this is mostly an overnight threat(although that's the only reason a threat exists), meaning most will be home during the duration of it. I do feel this threat is confined to NE Alabama, NW Georgia, and Southeast Tennessee.
 
The euro was dissapointing! How the hell does it supress the low to Miami! Moisture now seems to be the biggest issue now! Uggh! Can't wait for my 60s next week
 
I had looked at the 00z EPS members last night for the ice threat. (the snowfall/mean maps don't answer our question about ice on wxbell).

Noticed a few had pretty big deals for parts of GA & a few for Upstate SC. It wasn't a lot though.

As of 00z Canadian Ensembles, a good many are still on board.


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.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday)...At the start of the
forecast period surface high pressure located over the Ohio Valley
will be translating southeast. Meanwhile, our forecast area will
still be feeling the cold chill as overnight low temperatures drop
into the single digits north and upper teens south. It will be
Sunday before we break out of the sub-freezing temperatures.

The big story will be the warm air advection and moisture advection
ahead of the trough progged to bring precipitation back into the
forecast area. Model forecasts have been a challenge lately and
needless to say, uncertainty continues with this round of data.
Forecast soundings indicate that the atmosphere over E TN, SW VA and
SW NC will take some time to saturate. Currently we placed light
mixed precip moving into the TN Valley as early as Sunday
night...but in reality it may saturate a few hours after midnight.
Temperature profiles show surface temps will be well below zero
until mid-morning. About 3-4kft temperatures are well above freezing
which poses a problem in regards to freezing rain. Looks like there
will be a period from about 5 am to 11 am that many areas could
experience freezing rain/drizzle. Ice accumulations look light at this
time i.e. less than a tenth of an inch. This will certainly be
something to keep an eye on in the coming day or two.
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Yes Chattanooga needs to monitor this one closely because too many times we're fooled into thinking these setups will change over to rain.
 
If this keeps getting more squashed this is an irreverent concern but this seems to have a look that could produce a lot of freezing drizzle that maybe the models are not really printing out?
 
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