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Wintry January 3rd-6th, 2018 Winter Storm The ARCC/Xtreme Weather Special

Mr. Grinch said:
I think you are good for 4-6 Maybe 8 Atlantic moisture really getting involved up there now. Maybe some 2+/hr stuff for the next couple hours. By the way 965 just to your east per the hrrr

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I've got 2" already and I saw that on the hrrr, it's a sickness I look at it every hour like an idiot.... but yeah that's a bomb
 
Not sure how the roads will be tomorrow around here. Had to decide to go ahead and move the dinner for my wife's birthday that was supposed to be tomorrow night. Hope it was at least worth it.
 
I flipped about 8 just west of town, flake size leaves at bit to be desired but rates have gone up considerably over the past hour. Vis under a mile at the moment just eyeballing it. Bands converged over Pitt county with blossoming of the precious depicted on the RAX site to our south. Like to see that back edge hold around 95 for the next several hours, don’t know if 6” is in reach as most of the guidance shows the heavier stuff stopping around 3am here. Closing in on an inch.
 
I will be merging the storm observation thread and this one together after the event. Posting in either place, is fine.
 
The NW expansion of the heavy precip on the Raleigh radar over the last 30 minutes is impressive. I'm jealous of you guys out east if nothing else it should be an exciting few hours

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It was fun while it lasted, looks like this well has dried up for Pittsboro! Looks to be right at 3" or so, which is more than I expected this morning when I woke up. Thank you all for your time, energy, and incredibly valuable input. I look forward to engaging more with each of you over the coming years as I progress through school!

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Eastern NC along and east of a line from Goldsboro-Wilson-Rocky Mount-Roanoke Rapids is about to get clocked as the frontogenetical bands converge with the westward expanding precipitation field, going to be pockets of 35-40 dBz+ with graupel potentially mixed in w/ the heavier bands as was seen a few hours ago in Clinton when CC dropped off considerably underneath a razor thin 40 ish dBz band
 
Webberweather53 said:
Eastern NC along and east of a line from Goldsboro-Wilson-Rocky Mount-Roanoke Rapids is about to get clocked as the frontogenetical bands converge with the westward expanding precipitation field, going to be pockets of 35-40 dBz+ with graupel potentially mixed in w/ the heavier bands as was seen a few hours ago in Clinton when CC dropped off considerably underneath a razor thin 40 ish dBz band
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Has to be amazing out in those areas right now

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Webberweather53 said:
Eastern NC along and east of a line from Goldsboro-Wilson-Rocky Mount-Roanoke Rapids is about to get clocked as the frontogenetical bands converge with the westward expanding precipitation field, going to be pockets of 35-40 dBz+ with graupel potentially mixed in w/ the heavier bands as was seen a few hours ago in Clinton when CC dropped off considerably underneath a razor thin 40 ish dBz band
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I-95 literally looks to be the dividing line, just east of there should be go time shortly....
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Mr. Grinch said:
Seen tropical systems look worse
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Yeah, some of the high res guidance was certainly correct in indicating this low would develop what effectively amounts to an eyewall, might be a little more impressive than advertised in the eastern semi-circle but regardless that's insane. Classic shallow warm core hybrid subtropical-extratropical cyclone
 
This little intensifying band could sit right there for a few hours I wouldn't mind one bit
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Lightning strike just south of Nags Head. Hard to get a handle on PGV using the MHX site, RAX shows 28-32 DBZ returns overhead but still no uptick in flake size. Not even dime size flakes are going to make it difficult to push much past 1”hr rates.
 
It reminds me of some hurricanes that scared the east coast before Lol

Most of em are half extratropical by then anyway
 
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