You ask how every model looks. The European model’s best graphics are through pay sites, but every other model can be found freely. Your question should be “can someone post the link to the 18z Canadian?” Then you play around with all of the features. I’ve spent the last 15 years or so doing it. It’s very fun and educational.
I feel the same way. Just to see a few flakes again this soon would be historic for us.
I hope you guys get hammered with snow. Just let us have a little bit of that back this way.
That is crazy. Sounds like we really have no explanation why the models are so different. I guess the local TV mets just go with which ever one shows the least. That doesn't sound like the models are reliable either way, though.It could be, but none of the models that are dry have the resolution to resolve convection. Many of the ones that do, like the 3km NAM and the WRF-ARW2 pound us. I was also reading a WPC event summary from December 2017 for Texas and they mentioned those two models handling that event best for their area. Totally, and I do mean totally, different situation here but further adds some credibility to them. I know I tout the RGEM, and it may well end up being correct, but it actually has worse resolution that the ECMWF I believe, and it definitely doesn't have the resolution of the NAM so perhaps it is struggling with this extremely convective system also. I'm not trying to wish cast, I'm going to look like a moron at work where I put out my forecast to 7 offices across the state this afternoon if I'm wrong. This one is going to be a lot of fun to look back on and learn, hopefully after several days of playing in the snow
So, when will we be able to tell which one is right? And how do the mets figure out which one to go with for a forecast?You can see the clear difference on the 3k vs the gfs below. The gfs continues to pin the 700mb convergence to the coast and a westerly flow inland. You don't get much snow that way. The 3k nam develops a weak 700mb circulation over NE SC and a deep SE flow into nc
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Now-casting, radar trend and current up-stream obvs
But how do they decide which one to go with right now? From all I read 1300 and Webber think the NAM is more correct, with the setup we have, but seems like all the local mets are going with the globals.
Yeah i see that.
my frames are slow lol
Isn't this that the reason we so often deal with a warm nose that cuts precip amounts, especially in marginal temp profile setups? The NAM usually nails that, I think Webb said earlier we actually need some waa to get moisture return like the NAM is showing...You can see the clear difference on the 3k vs the gfs below. The gfs continues to pin the 700mb convergence to the coast and a westerly flow inland. You don't get much snow that way. The 3k nam develops a weak 700mb circulation over NE SC and a deep SE flow into nc
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Remember the low DP's. Virga stormQuite a decent increase in precip back in LA, AR, & MS this run