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Wintry January 3rd-6th, 2018 Winter Storm The ARCC/Xtreme Weather Special

My Area 5 miles North of Santee SC.. looks to in a good area for heavy snow‼️ So Southern/Eastern Midlands look to do good.
 
It happens..... February 2004. Pouring snow in Winnsboro and Newberry, while I had could barely see a few flakes.
That storm hurt me more than yall know. To this day, ive still never seen such a sharp cut off from heavy snow to heavy rain and sleet. lol
 
Still snowing at this point in parts of Central and Northeastern North Carolina as well as Southeastern Va
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That looks great for central NC. Didn't expect that. Looks like the totals actually increased.
 
Can't post a pic right now but just glancing at the SPC analysis page looks to me like our lead shortwave is still a little Southwest of most model guidance

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Correct. The Pee Dee (likely, the best spot to be in SC for this storm), Grand Strand, and Lowcountry also look to do well.
TBD as far how far enough that precip. field makes it West. I do agree it will be a very tight gradient though. Any subtle changes could make quite a difference for some. Hope it can continue the West shift though.
 
I think the cutoff will be somewhere around KCAE proper, as Eric also thinks. That might even be too generous with the colder/dry air in place. If you are from Sumter, Orangeburg, Southeast from there, you'll do much better.

And even as far west as KCAE at all, is based on the NAM.
 
Urgh, what a day on the models. Tomorrow is a new day w/new opportunities.....I hope. The NW trend has come to a halt. Maybe I'm wrong but it looks like the eastern trough is pushing this E.
 
RGEM still had the low in a great position for Central North Carolina but lighter amounts, really starting to think this wound up low is cutting down on the moisture transport west of the center.
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Based on that, it appears a hair at most SW. Something looks flatter in the South though compared to the initialized NAM. Any thoughts as to what this could mean? I think that could result in a later tilt, or in other words, it's going east.

The trough is actually a little sharper in reality alng SE and the trailing wave is futher SW. Lead wave is about same,maybe a tick futher east.
 
RGEM still had the low in a great position for Central North Carolina but lighter amounts, really starting to think this wound up low is cutting down on the moisture transport west of the center.
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Also shows upslope snows and flurries for smokey MTNS and favored E TN FWIW;
 
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