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Wintry January 3rd-6th, 2018 Winter Storm The ARCC/Xtreme Weather Special

Stormsfury said:
With the later phase, the pull is not as pronounced NW this run...inverted trough is still there, but less warm nosing apparent with a thinner transitional line...
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Whats funny is the sfc low is closer to the coast yet less precip....ya....there is no easy way to say this, but what changes on the NAM both 12km and 3km and not in a good way....NAM=FAIL this run for sure.
 
Last frame is the newest. Much further East with precip shield for GA/SC especially. This is like 4 NAM runs.

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packfan98 said:
Agreed. It would be more accurate to say that the nam took a step towards the other models.
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That’s semantics. The bottom line is, the early phase that the Nam was showing that was absent on all the other models is gone. That tells me that the Nam was probably wrong. That isn’t Debbie Downer. It’s just an unfortunate fact.
 
Yep, big change within hours of the players both being on the field in the continental usa. Sorry my KCAE/GA friends.
 
Jon pointed it out clearly. The trailing wave got held up by the GL vort . See if that's the case rest of tonight in to tommorow.
 
Actually 3km is good for NC and thats about it...even GA and SC coastlines...forget about inland GA and SC this run
 
deltadog03 said:
Whats funny is the sfc low is closer to the coast yet less precip....ya....there is no easy way to say this, but what changes on the NAM both 12km and 3km and not in a good way....NAM=FAIL this run for sure.
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Funny thing is that the globals could continue a slight west adjustment...there was a key difference on this run, though, so I wonder how that will affect the 00z suite. Definitely though, NAM trended towards the EURO and looks more like the RGEM in some aspects.

It will be interesting to see if the globals have a stronger lead wave, how will they respond at the SFC tonight
 
deltadog03 said:
Actually 3km is good for NC and thats about it...even GA and SC coastlines...forget about inland GA and SC this run
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in NC it's all about sfc lp track. Yea a super jacked up lp is nice but a weaker one hugging the SC coast and on a more north trajectory will get enough qpf to whiten the brown ground.
 
Shawn said:
Last frame is the newest. Much further East with precip shield for GA/SC especially. This is like 4 NAM runs.

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Well you can definitely see it consolidated quite a line of convection over the Gulf Stream on the 00z run... part of your moisture transport problem
 
Don't get me wrong still a very hard hit for NFL and the coastal areas of GA and SC. Just not as much
 
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