Wintry January 3rd-6th, 2018 Winter Storm The ARCC/Xtreme Weather Special

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[deltadog03]

well, not a good start....

 

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

The low is closer but less precip thrown to the West. Make sense.

Yep. Definitely odd. Low deeper and closer to the coast. Basically from off JAX to just off MYR and less precip inland. Weird.

 

[Tarheel1]

Ughhhh! Grenville SC is out!

 

[$alt]

Later phase, tilt slower. Basically, a step away for interior sections. Still good for the coastal.

 

[NCSNOW]

The surface low is futher west at hour 39 on Shawn comparison above. LOL

 

[Stormsfury]

well, not a good start....

With the later phase, the pull is not as pronounced NW this run...inverted trough is still there, but less warm nosing apparent with a thinner transitional line...

 

[GeorgiaGirl]

I think that does it for me. May still be good for interior NC but interior GA outside of South GA is out.

Hard to be mad though about it. It's even rarer for the coast to get anything. What I don't understand is the L was WEST LOL.

 

[Mitch West]

Yeh confused on why noone is noticing the placement of the low compared to the precip shield.

 

[Cad Wedge NC]

Yep. Definitely odd. Low deeper and closer to the coast. Basically from off JAX to just off MYR and less precip inland. Weird.

Yep, looks that way. I don't understand how it can be stronger and closer to the coast and be less moisture?

 

[Jon]

NAM 3km will be similar. Goodbye insane inland NC snow.


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[LovingGulfLows]

Looks like the RGEM. Realistic run IMO.

 

[Webberweather53]

The southern vort intensified and tilted a little faster w/o interaction from the northern stream and the surface low placement is pretty ideal for a big hit between the I-95 and US-1 corridors. A track over or west of Hatteras usually leads to mixing issues in RDU, 50-100 miles offshore is about where you want it here. Just an fyi, the tropical tidbits 12km NAM precip maps also suck.

 

[Bryce Shelton]

Ok, so the low placement is CLOSER to the coast, but yet there is less precip inland?? Why?

 

[Webberweather53]

NAM 3km will be similar. Goodbye insane inland NC snow.


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The TT 12km NAM reflectivity maps are bad, there's still snow into the eastern piedmont of NC on this run verbatim

 

[Mitch West]

The TT 12km NAM reflectivity maps are bad, there's still snow into the eastern piedmont of NC on this run verbatim

Got a pic, Eric? If you don't mind?

 

[$alt]

00z NAM:

18z NAM:

 

[Brick Tamland]

Ok, wait till 6z then. It doesn’t mean we can’t get snow. You’re too emotional about this. There are still plenty of snow scenarios on the table. It would be nice for a global to show some of them.

No, just hate when people say one run different from the other runs is a trend. One run is not the definition of the word trend.

 

[Snowflowxxl]

No way to sugar coat it, not a good run!

 

[packfan98]

No, just hate when people say one run different from the other runs is a trend. One run is not the definition of the word trend.

Agreed. It would be more accurate to say that the nam took a step towards the other models.