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Wintry January 3rd-6th, 2018 Winter Storm The ARCC/Xtreme Weather Special

Rain Cold said:
Yeah, good post. Recently, the Nam has done well. But I get NAM PTSD, I guess, because I have a lot of memory of the old NAM pulling out the rug. I don’t like it on an island. That’s risky. But I do think it’s possible.
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IMO it is going to take some time for forecasters to break old habits (i.e. "trust" the new NAM..).
 
SXUS74 KHUN 020023
RERHSV

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE
620 PM CST MON JAN 1 2018

...RECORD DAILY LOW MAXIMUM TIED AT HUNTSVILLE...

THE HIGH TEMPERATURE AT HUNTSVILLE ONLY REACHED 25 DEGREES TODAY.
THAT HIGH TEMPERATURES TIES THE PREVIOUS OLD RECORD LOW MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURE OF 25 DEGREES SET IN 2001.
 
1300m said:
It's funny because all my recent recollections of the NAM is of it being the new "Dr. NO" while the Euro says snow snow snow. The Euro was horrific with the system in December, it had I believe 6 straight runs with RDU near or in the sweet spot, and we know how that turned out. And I know I harp a lot on last January's storm, but that was another epic fail by all the global models. I am not a fan of the Euro or any global inside of 72 hours, and that's just two examples of why.

However, with that said, the NAM scares me. I have seen it do some absolutely mind-boggling wrong things too, but those were before the upgrade. Like I said earlier, if the RGEM would align a little closer with the NAM, I'd essentially be all-in on the NAM solution. The good news to me is that even though the RGEM at H5 looks more like the GFS, the precipitation distribution is still well inland. I am pretty confident if it does trend towards the NAM at H5 it will mimic it at the surface also, perhaps with a little less vigor but still some 12"+ totals between RDU and I-95.
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Great post man!! I fully agree with this. NAM scares the shi* out of me, but I buy into it somewhat because of the H5 look. So let's say the H5 looks aweful and flat and we are pumping out stupid numbers then it's red flag. I honestly think we could bring the qpf line a bit further NW over GA as well. Maybe to me. We shall see what you honestly think about that?
 
packfan98 said:
DT just posted a good video that explains what the different models are showing and how the inverted trough can throw the precip further NW. He also goes over the 2000 Carolina Crusher. Good video for those trying to learn about the upper air patterns.
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Yesterday he said there was 0 chance of it affecting his area! Lol
 
Bernie rayno of accu weather says this is a shave for the mid Atlantic and a big hit for NE, idk why he's ignoring what models are showing for the SE up to SE VA
 
I would like to say that the recent RAP analysis (00) hour, matches well with the 18z nam's 5 hour out forecast with most everything. In fact, the RAP may be a little teeny bit better at h5.

Forecast errors that happen early, tend to compound quickly and messes up the whole forecast; so keeping tabs on the hourly modeling is important here.
 
Let's see whether or not the slow NW trend of the heavier qpf continues on the 0Z GFS as each future run is very crucial now as far as whether or not the wetter models are onto something. My educated guess is that the NW trend will continue with the 0Z GFS.
 
Shawn said:
I would like to say that the recent RAP analysis (00) hour, matches well with the 18z nam's 5 hour out forecast with most everything. In fact, the RAP may be a little teeny bit better at h5.

Forecast errors that happen early, tend to compound quickly and messes up the whole forecast; so keeping tabs on the hourly modeling is important here.
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Keep us updated, Shawn.
 
GaWx said:
Let's see whether or not the slow NW trend of the heavier qpf continues on the 0Z GFS as each future run is very crucial now as far as whether or not the wetter models are onto something. My educated guess is that the NW trend will continue with the 0Z GFS.
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I agree. Let's see if the NAM continues it's madness lol
 
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