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Wintry January 3rd-6th, 2018 Winter Storm The ARCC/Xtreme Weather Special

wtf is going on?
namconus_asnow_seus_29.png
 
look at this quote from the latest KCAE forecast discussion:

There
has not been much change in the thinking regarding this potential
storm despite the 12z NAM coming in with an apocalyptic solution
that has the surface low closer to the coast and is forecasting
several inches of snow over our area with unreasonable amounts of
QPF.
 
Shawn said:
look at this quote from the latest KCAE forecast discussion:

There
has not been much change in the thinking regarding this potential
storm despite the 12z NAM coming in with an apocalyptic solution
that has the surface low closer to the coast and is forecasting
several inches of snow over our area with unreasonable amounts of
QPF.
Click to expand...

Can you imagine what happens if what the mesoscale models say actually verifies? Oops.
 
Shawn said:
look at this quote from the latest KCAE forecast discussion:

There
has not been much change in the thinking regarding this potential
storm despite the 12z NAM coming in with an apocalyptic solution
that has the surface low closer to the coast and is forecasting
several inches of snow over our area with unreasonable amounts of
QPF.
Click to expand...

Not that they need to go all in just yet but I would certainly word things a little different.


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Ok for the West gang the only way right now i see this to bring us snow is the High doesn't come in as fast or strong.
 
whatalife said:
Not that they need to go all in just yet but I would certainly word things a little different.


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Click to expand...

The rest of it basically says its wrong and the GFS/Euro agree and maybe some in eastern counties, no accumulation. But any west shifts could cause acumulation in the eastern sections.
 
So what are we waiting on to jump all in? The Euro and GFS to show the same thing?
 
Shawn said:
The rest of it basically says its wrong and the GFS/Euro agree and maybe some in eastern counties, no accumulation. But any west shifts could cause acumulation in the eastern sections.
Click to expand...

Man that’s crazy. Not saying we get anything out of this system and we are now entering into the NAM’s wheel house.


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That kicker is the only thing keeping totals down here. In 2000 we had a band sit over us for almost 18 hrs


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