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Wintry January 3rd-6th, 2018 Winter Storm The ARCC/Xtreme Weather Special

Robert West said:
Yes, please make a map for all of the Carolina's Eric.
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If I make a map for the Carolinas this far out, no doubt it's going to be probabilistic and not deterministic. I'm okay w/ making multiple maps for an event as long as I don't have too many deterministic ones because it kind of defeats the purpose. If there's one thing I've learned while tracking storms for this many years a simple model consensus (even if it includes every model known to man) (as I often see many others in this field do) does not cut the chase, in-situ dynamical adjustments are paramount
 
Webberweather53 said:
If I make a map for the Carolinas this far out, no doubt it's going to be probabilistic and not deterministic. I'm okay w/ making multiple maps for an event as long as I don't have too many deterministic ones because it kind of defeats the purpose
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I was just meaning when you do make a map to make one for all of the Carolina's or one for SC and another for NC
 
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It looks like those horrible SREFs just went up. I wonder what the NAM is about to do...Wonder what they look like for NC...(sarcasm included)


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1300m said:
I agree, we've definitely been on this train together! FWIW, a few of my met colleagues (who really just started paying attention yesterday) also think the NAM is likely handling the low placement and precipitation shield more correctly.
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It's been fun to be honest. I miss that part of the biz, not the politics. Lol. I think we are not done trending either
 
Does anyone have a SREF snow plume for Atlanta. Lol, I know it's unrealistic expectations for ATL but I just wanna see if there's a chance. May sound crazy that I still think ATL may have a chance..
 
whatalife said:
It looks like those horrible SREFs just went up. I wonder what the NAM is about to do...Wonder what they look like for NC...


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At 2 inches now. NAM about to do something crazy...
 
Clayton Reid said:
Does anyone have a SREF snow plume for Atlanta. Lol, I know it's unrealistic expectations for ATL but I just wanna see if there's a chance. May sound crazy that I still think ATL may have a chance..
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It's at 0. ALl you got to do is google SREF plumes and it's super easy to figure it out.
 
Well dang. I didn't wanna face the thought that Savannah of all places could get snow and not the ATL. But it looks like I have to face it. I just don't wanna keep kicking the can for my area because this cold is about to kick out soon on the models.
 
SREF plumes can’t be trusted at this range. The SREF uses two mesoscale models, ARW and NMB, which are often worlds apart at this range. ARW is very wet leading to the high individual members on the plumes while the NMB is bone dry. They need to be closer together for the SREF to have utility. Until then, you’re basically only looking at one model, the ARW, and discounting the main reason why the SREF is used which is as an ensemble system.


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Clayton Reid said:
Well dang. I didn't wanna face the thought that Savannah of all places could get snow and not the ATL. But it looks like I have to face it. I just don't wanna keep kicking the can for my area because this cold is about to kick out soon on the models.
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The man in Savannah has been all over this, and roots for KATL incessantly; how about a little reciprocity and neighborly well-wishes?
 
18z NAM is running. 12z was an absolute crush job for southeast Georgia, and eastern SC. Mid to upper 20 surface temperatures, and all snow profile for some. Over a foot of snow possible for those areas. This is going to be one for the history books if the NAM isn't just smoking New Year weed.
 
Jon said:
SREF plumes can’t be trusted at this range. The SREF uses two mesoscale models, ARW and NMB, which are often worlds apart at this range. ARW is very wet leading to the high individual members on the plumes while the NMB is bone dry. They need to be closer together for the SREF to have utility. Until then, you’re basically only looking at one model, the ARW, and discounting the main reason why the SREF is used which is as an ensemble system.


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You are correct but you have it reversed on the mesoscale models. Its the ARW that is dry, at least on what I looked.
 
pcbjr said:
The man in Savannah has been all over this, and roots for KATL incessantly; how about a little reciprocity and neighborly well-wishes?
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Sorry. I just remembered that in February 2010 both ATL and SAV got snow so I was kinda hoping for that but you're right. This storm is fun to track nonetheless
 
Jon said:
SREF plumes can’t be trusted at this range. The SREF uses two mesoscale models, ARW and NMB, which are often worlds apart at this range. ARW is very wet leading to the high individual members on the plumes while the NMB is bone dry. They need to be closer together for the SREF to have utility. Until then, you’re basically only looking at one model, the ARW, and discounting the main reason why the SREF is used which is as an ensemble system.


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My comment was only meant as sarcasm and Jon I totally agree with you on this...


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