• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Wintry January 3rd-6th, 2018 Winter Storm The ARCC/Xtreme Weather Special

NCSNOW said:
1300m you've done a great job with others on this. Alan Huffman said the same thing this a.m. like your call earlier today with the max strip possibly 6 to 12 hitting between i95 and us 1.
Click to expand...

6-12 is a good conservative estimate. We could see a lot more in the jackpot zone if we hit this storm just right. The MSLP this is forecasted to have south of Hatteras is just unreal for January,
 
The story is the same, globals say forget anything interior (expect a bit inland overnNC) and the hi res say almost to central GA and CAE and RDU get precip. 18z NAM will be interesting. So will euro later tonight
 
Phasing situations are just fickle to deal with. This could very well be a nothing burger outside of the coast until you get to North Carolina, or we could see the waves start dancing over Arkansas and even if they're too amped, something sneak up on interior Georgia and South Carolina.
 
carolinachaos said:
With what we know now, is anyone willing to give any first call estimates on snow amounts for the Carolinas?

Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

KCHS already has a 1-3" along the coastal counties.. 0" here in Dorchester County. I have seem some other coaatal offices already putting preliminary forecasts and KCAE has introduced a slight chance Southern Midland Zones
 
Webberweather53 said:
6-12 is a good conservative estimate. If we hit this storm just right, the MSLP this is forecasted to have south of Hatteras is just unreal for January, we could see a lot more in the jackpot zone
Click to expand...
Just how far west realistically could you see some snow with this setup? I feel I'm 99% sure I want see a flake with this, But I see some people that's W/SW of me grasping at straws (I think)? I'm in the N.Foothills of NC
 
BIG FROSTY said:
Just how far west realistically could you see some snow with this setup? I feel I'm 99% sure I want see a flake with this, But I see some people that's W/SW of me grasping at straws (I think)? I'm in the N.Foothills of NC
Click to expand...

I think Greensboro/Winston-Salem back to Statesville, and Shelby (ish) is probably about as far NW as I could see any significant snows coming. Essentially if you're NW of I-85 between Greensboro & Charlotte, I don't see much at all. Areas towards the central-eastern piedmont and western coastal plain appear to be in the driver seat atm...
 
1300m said:
There is going to be some insane banding with this system. Someone may be under a band producing 2 to 3" per hour. Maybe even 4"....
Click to expand...

I agree with that. Not to mention the ratios will be insane at least 12-15:1 in many spots w/ temps in the mid 20s. Some of those clown maps in the jackpot zone could be feasibly pushed up by as much as 30-50% when all is said and done as long as they don't mix w/ sleet. The potential for graupel in the heaviest convective bands will certainly make the forecast that much harder... Nice to know we've both been seeing virtually eye-to-eye with this event
 
How about Thunder snow, will the dynamics in this system have the possibility of producing this. Experienced this phenomenon twice and I was as amp as Jim Cantore was when got 6 hits while broadcasting live a few years ago.

Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk
 
I can’t wait to see @1300m and @Webberweather53’s first call maps. I’m assuming after the 0z runs tonight?

Also, how did the EPS look?
 
carolinachaos said:
How about Thunder snow, will the dynamics in this system have the possibility of producing this. Experienced this phenomenon twice and I was as amp as Jim Cantore was when got 6 hits while broadcasting live a few years ago.

Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

Absolutely, without question if you get into the core of this thing there's going to be thundersnow....
 
If we get snow it's going to stick around through the weekend and some of those late week mornings will be brutal

Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk
 
18Z NAM is about to run :))... but I'm still stuck on whether to believe the NAM, or look at global models?? With the event being so close I want to say look at the NAM, but it has some insane totals... while global models are basically a non event for us away from the coast line in SC.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top