hr36 and the chaser still a bit quicker dropping down.
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Wintry January 3rd-6th, 2018 Winter Storm The ARCC/Xtreme Weather Special
- Thread starter TheBatman
- Start date
He has been adamant on his prediction. Fwiw A few days ago this storm had an inland track
Starting to interact at hr48. The chaser wave is a bit further south, but its also quite a bit stronger. starting to interact with the waves back over OK
Think that is going to be a good thing.
Stormsfury
Member
Lead shortwave appears a tick west of 12z. Definitely looking slightly better than 12z.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
By 54 the lead s/w doesn't look quite as impressive but it's still pretty good
Not going to cut if folks....phase is a bit late on there. little less qpf near the SAV coast areas vs 12z run so far.
Well, not going to lie, I thought we would see a little bit better of a trend on the doc, but it didn't happen....I might be eating crow...lol Still plenty of time, but euro didn't budge west at all. to be honest, it looks a little worse than the 12z run
Stormsfury
Member
Heights slightly lower at 72, SFC low same spot as 12z but 4mb deeper at 999mb.
RollTide18
Member
Not wishcasting at all but based on what I've been reading, it seems like a battle of the globals vs mesoscale models seem to be setting up.
still some light snow for you potentially, but ya it was largely a swing and a miss
They can't all be winners. Happy New Years and thanks for the pbp
Problem. Euro is 9KM. It's nothing to sneeze at.
Stormsfury
Member
Quite possible that we maybe settling into a general idea of the players and the setup, but the corrections will likely occur towards the 11th hour... honestly, I think there will be some room to shift left maybe 100 miles but that's about it.
Stormsfury
Member
Yeah I was wondering, 12z wasn't a whole lot and with this, suspected relatively the same thing.
NAVGEM still refused to budge, still abouy the same again...
our problem is there is a late phase for 1, but 2...there is a lot of competition for energy in the west atl
ya, I think if your outside the coastal areas its going to be very tough to get moisture and precip. RDU might still have a shot, but if your not on or very near the coast this ones going to be tough I think unless we see a quicker phase.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Well the Euro technically has the highest resolution of every major global model but it still can't explicitly resolve convection, you need at least 3-km grid spacing for that. Otherwise it has to be parameterized
Michael21
Member
It's not over yet.There plenty of time to trend this system much further Northwest.It has happened it has many times with Southeastern snowstorms.If the Low can develop in the Gulf,take a Northern Florida Track and hug the coast afterwards,we still have a shot.Looking at the recent Nam models and it's significant west trends and the Rgem model,which closes off the main wave,there's still a chance.
