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Wintry January 29th-30th ARCC Slam Dunk Winter Weather Threat

These showers will probably have graupel and some thunder and lightning, very quick cooling aloft almost like a ULL, could see a burst of snow in these thundershowers but I’d say graupel/small hail
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@Webberweather53 It seems the 3km NAM and HRRR have been hinting at a convective element to the system as it crosses Central NC later today. Surface temps ahead of the front skyrocket into the upper 50s to near 60 in areas while the upper levels are cooling quickly. IF this line of storms develops as modeled, do you think this line could have some small hail, heavy wet snow (dynamic cooling) or graupel mixed in?
 
@snowlover91 ive seen snow/graupel happen with a similar setup at 47F, there will be some sfc instability with steep low level and mid level lapse rates so I would not be surprised
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
@snowlover91 ive seen snow/graupel happen with a similar setup at 47F, there will be some sfc instability so I would not be surprised
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Thanks, I was thinking graupel or snow could be possible if an intense convective line forms as it would effectively mix down the colder air aloft and rapidly crash the temperatures. This isn't a setup I've seen very often so I'm curious to see what happens.
 
snowlover91 said:
@Webberweather53 It seems the 3km NAM and HRRR have been hinting at a convective element to the system as it crosses Central NC later today. Surface temps ahead of the front skyrocket into the upper 50s to near 60 in areas while the upper levels are cooling quickly. IF this line of storms develops as modeled, do you think this line could have some small hail, heavy wet snow (dynamic cooling) or graupel mixed in?
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I'm not Webber, but if you get convection with low freezing levels, you will almost certainly have hail or graupel if the convection is strong enough. I am going to strongly doubt any convection will exist that will be strong enough to produce those results around here. Maybe an isolated cell, but that's about it, as far as I can see.
 
Rain Cold said:
I'm not Webber, but if you get convection with low freezing levels, you will almost certainly have hail or graupel if the convection is strong enough. I am going to strongly doubt any convection will exist that will be strong enough to produce those results around here. Maybe an isolated cell, but that's about it, as far as I can see.
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Yeah I'm curious to see what happens with it, the high res models have been consistent with some convective storms forming along the frontal boundary. With upper 50s to low 60s in front of the front and 30s behind it combined with cold air at the upper levels it might be enough to bring some graupel in that band. I remember a few years ago a system with a cold core aloft and warmer 40s at the surface the produced some graupel. Perhaps this will be similar.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Pattern is similar to this one, this produced convective snow in the northern midlands, CLT area, not saying it’s happening this time at all but pattern is sorta similar View attachment 14245
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Nice find, yeah I think that was the one I was thinking about, I was in the Raleigh area at the time and saw a good bit of graupel as it moved through.
 
Storm5 said:
Lol this isnt true at all . Maybe in this type of setup . But the past decade here has been amazing


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I guess the beauty is in the eyes of the beholder. Some take joy in the garden variety 1-3 inches. Just depends where you are and where you’ve been. Here, that’s not even enough to cancel church.
 
NWTENN said:
That's what I say. The general public has no idea what a "clipper system" is, but with these, until there's snow on the ground, there's no need to cancel anything. In the deep south, it's just really hard to get meaningful snow from one of them, even if the models say so. For the past 2 days, the models slowly backed off and when it came radar watching time, it just wasn't there. No surprise. Heck, even here in NW Tennessee where we get some snow periodically, the forecast snow amount crept backward for the last few days, until all mention was taken out of the forecast yesterxay afternoon. That said, it sure is cold here this morning! But yes, climatology usually wins. When in doubt, lean towards it.
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I figured Rosie might get something, but south of that is a crap shoot with a clipper. They have to dig pretty deep to get down past Marietta. Usually the dusting is north of Gainesville. Anytime a chase is involved it usually ends in tears :)
 
Sitting at 29 with about 1/2" on the ground. It was 32 degrees with small flakes still coming down when my 6 year old woke me up at 8:30 screaming about snow. You could hear it melting in the gutters, but that's slowing down already.
 
Flakes are flying here in northeastern Cobb, not many though.
 
Wow the cold air is literally chasing the remaining moisture we have left. Maybe I’ll get those token flakes after all! lol
 
The timing/duration at ATL (~3-5 hours for ALL of the precip, not just the snow, and starting ~6-9 AM in ATL/ending late AM) and amounts for ATL (near 0.25” is what has fallen?) are about what modeling consensus suggested. But the temps were 8-10+ degrees warmer than what consensus showed!! That’s what got totally missed. Why were the temps so much warmer than modeled??
 
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