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Wintry January 23rd-27th 2026

The other thing about the lack of QPF early on is that it makes the I-85/US74 corridor so "squall line dependent" for its precip. For example, Shelby is at .44 pre-squall line and .74 after -- 40 percent of the QPF comes from the line that may or not even be frozen.

I don't know about everywhere, but I think there is a good chance this storm underperforms on QPF along and near I-85 from Atlanta to at least Charlotte. Doesn't mean it can't reverse, but that's a clear trend on the short-terms.

Late note -- ever seen this? 0Z NAM ... at just SIX HOURS in .. takes a state (Ga.) covered with precip and make it disappear. Something super wonky is happening with QPF for this storm and right now it seems to be that it is going away rather than increasing. trend-namgone2026012500-f006.ref1km_ptype.us_se.gif
 
beanskip said:
The other thing about the lack of QPF early on is that it makes the I-85/US74 corridor so "squall line dependent" for its precip. For example, Shelby is at .44 pre-squall line and .74 after -- 40 percent of the QPF comes from the line that may or not even be frozen.

I don't know about everywhere, but I think there is a good chance this storm underperforms on QPF along and near I-85 from Atlanta to at least Charlotte. Doesn't mean it can't reverse, but that's a clear trend on the short-terms.

Late note -- ever seen this? 0Z NAM ... at just SIX HOURS in .. takes a state (Ga.) covered with precip and make it disappear. Something super wonky is happening with QPF for this storm and right now it seems to be that it is going away rather than increasing. View attachment 188728
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That would be great news!
 
Nomanslandva said:
@BIG FROSTY , what's the truth on the ground there?
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Nothing but sleet, roads are very slick, some freezing rain mixed in also. I would say 90/10 sleet, hope it stays that way since it seems there's no way to flip back to snow.
 
beanskip said:
I mean, according to the 0z NAM, through 10 a.m. tomorrow Atlanta will see less than a tenth of an inch of precip. Just 12 hours ago that number was three quarters of an inch!
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Yep very spotty precip and very light clt to rdu, no doubt it’ll accrue but idk about these catastrophic totals
 
Not sure which one is the High now 1038 or 1040 but either way still very strong
0303ba3bda79ee0069d8e6bc187b8577.jpg


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Snowflowxxl said:
No chance that verifies based on what’s heading this way
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I tend to agree, but this radar + the short term models, is enough to cause some pause: https://radar.weather.gov/?settings...vY2FsU3RhdGlvbnMiOjAuOCwibmF0aW9uYWwiOjAuNn19

Look at the returns once they get east of Dalton and even past Atlanta and Athens. They just dry up in those single digit dewpoints. Maybe the models overestimated the ability of the precip to moisten up all of that super dry atmosphere? I don't know but a model gong from .75 to .1 in 12 hours is quite something.

3K NAM looks similar -- CLT goes from .7 to .1 just since the 12z run.

EDIT: But what NAM3K gives away in N.C. it gives back in ATL -- who the hell knows!
 
beanskip said:
The other thing about the lack of QPF early on is that it makes the I-85/US74 corridor so "squall line dependent" for its precip. For example, Shelby is at .44 pre-squall line and .74 after -- 40 percent of the QPF comes from the line that may or not even be frozen.

I don't know about everywhere, but I think there is a good chance this storm underperforms on QPF along and near I-85 from Atlanta to at least Charlotte. Doesn't mean it can't reverse, but that's a clear trend on the short-terms.

Late note -- ever seen this? 0Z NAM ... at just SIX HOURS in .. takes a state (Ga.) covered with precip and make it disappear. Something super wonky is happening with QPF for this storm and right now it seems to be that it is going away rather than increasing. View attachment 188728
Click to expand...
I agree the dry air is destroying the light precip. Im bone dry still and it looks to be after 10 before any reaches here...gonna be a light event for sure i believe..thankfully for mby
 
beanskip said:
I tend to agree, but this radar + the short term models, is enough to cause some pause: https://radar.weather.gov/?settings...vY2FsU3RhdGlvbnMiOjAuOCwibmF0aW9uYWwiOjAuNn19

Look at the returns once they get east of Dalton and even past Atlanta and Athens. They just dry up in those single digit dewpoints. Maybe the models overestimated the ability of the precip to moisten up all of that super dry atmosphere? I don't know but a model gong from .75 to .1 in 12 hours is quite something.

3K NAM looks similar -- CLT goes from .7 to .1 just since the 12z run.
Click to expand...
Yep, I mean 24hrs ago models showed clt sleeting heavily by 6p and here we are 9p barely spitting sleet pellets
 
beanskip said:
I tend to agree, but this radar + the short term models, is enough to cause some pause: https://radar.weather.gov/?settings...vY2FsU3RhdGlvbnMiOjAuOCwibmF0aW9uYWwiOjAuNn19

Look at the returns once they get east of Dalton and even past Atlanta and Athens. They just dry up in those single digit dewpoints. Maybe the models overestimated the ability of the precip to moisten up all of that super dry atmosphere? I don't know but a model gong from .75 to .1 in 12 hours is quite something.

3K NAM looks similar -- CLT goes from .7 to .1 just since the 12z run.

EDIT: But what NAM3K gives away in N.C. it gives back in ATL -- who the hell knows!
Click to expand...
I think they underestimated the strength of the CAD
 
chase223322 said:
Its pretty dry here so far and it was supposed to have started? Maybe all the crazy qpf estimates will not really happen?
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I really hope so. I’m in White House and got almost 2 inches of snow plus sleet. Still sleeting as of 20 minutes ago. Just praying every single model and it’s inch plus of zr is way off.
 
NAM gets sleet line to State College, PA tomorrow. Seems to be on its own though. Globals and their hi res models (RGEM) have 10-12” of snow for me and the NAM esp and the HRRR have 4-7”. Have a feeling it will be one or the other, not something in the middle
 
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