Yes, I believe those storms provide the moisture and some lift for our first batch of precip over night. Without them qpf totals were less in the midnight-4am time frame.
It depends on how they align. If they are perpendicular, they can sometimes enhance moisture. If they were like a straight line across the gulf, it can cut them off. A professional can fact check me but thats how I remember it going.
Yes and interestingly those were the colder models that kept precip as sleet longer.
Hrrr doesn’t even show sleet for much of ga and nc so totals likely inflated
Post those maps its what we are here for please
and HRRR.. still further north than radar right now
Sigh. Wish it was ground zero for snow. I really don’t know if people are ready. But I agree, the HRRR is remarkable.
From what I’ve read, and this jives with my 2015 experience. Small water droplets/drizzle will easily be sleet for us. Heavier batches and burst of moderate precip will fall as rain.
You can see the gulf convection kill the totals for Arkansas there.
Correct, unless that perpendicular line of storms races out ahead of the system then it can have same impact as an east to west line of storms. Don't think it will play a huge role in this system, just my humble opinion though
My opinion here is that this is a really large storm with big features, where the globals should shine more in terms of precipitation output. NAM is going to be on the schizophrenic side with how it pops out precip
Wouldn't that lean towards more sleet
While we are sitting at -7 to -10 925’s yes. We don’t stay at those temps very long. Those quickly turn into -1 to -5. That’s cold enough to stop a deeper warm nose with 850’s at +8 to +11
Why would they do that now? Isn’t the CAD really not supposed to get going till later today?
I can certainly see, based on some of the overnight modeling, why that is. I told my family this morning, even here, that the odds of some of the high-end totals have gone down. That said, underestimating CAD here usually doesn't work out well. So, it's surrounding obs and radar from here for me.
Cobb now has a little slice of pink, a couple of hours ago all of Cobb was leaning purple. Just tell us the models are all over the place and hard storm to forecast, don’t try to rewrite history
